@Federation_Bot
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Joining @edent.tel@bsky.brid.gy's dark side of "document orientation" monitors.
Assez fan du concept de "Caswell test" pour inciter les chercheureuses qui parlent d'archives à citer davantage d'archivistes https://orb.binghamton.edu/english_fac/3/
La slide est de la médiéviste Bridget Whearty, inspirée par un article de Michelle Caswell : https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7bn4v1fk
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Millennial's CV. Today's cartoon by Zez Vaz. More cartoons: https://www.cartoonmovement.com/
¿Qué es Apoyo Mutuo?
SENEDD ELECTION: Race between Plaid and Reform on a knife-edge as two major new polls show Wales is heading for historic result
YouGov’s second MRP of the 2026 Senedd election shows a tight race between Reform UK and Plaid Cymru(Image: YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales, 6–15 April 2026)
Two major polls published this week have painted a remarkably consistent picture of where Wales stands with two weeks to go until the Senedd election: a historic race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, Labour in third place, and an outcome that nobody can predict with confidence.
The most detailed of the two is YouGov’s second MRP for ITV Cymru Wales, produced in partnership with Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre on a sample of 2,387 Welsh adults between April 6 and 15. It projects Reform UK on 37 seats and Plaid Cymru on 36 — a significant tightening since YouGov’s first MRP last month, when Plaid led by a wider margin. Both parties are tied on 29% of the vote in the latest YouGov model, with Labour on 13%, the Greens on 10%, Conservatives on 8%, and the Liberal Democrats on 6%.
YouGov’s second Senedd MRP shows Reform UK and Plaid Cymru neck-and-neck on vote share(Image: YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales, 6–15 April 2026)
The Ipsos poll, published today and conducted between April 2 and 8 on a sample of 747 Welsh adults, puts Plaid Cymru at 30% and Reform UK at 25%, with Labour on 15%. Half of Welsh voters say they may yet change their minds — 52% — while Reform voters are the most committed, with just 32% saying they could switch compared to 53% of Plaid supporters.
That commitment gap is significant. Reform UK has been particularly effective at converting those who consider voting for them into firm intenders, with a conversion rate of 81%, while the Green Party has struggled to convert interest into voting intention at just 27%.
What it means for coalition arithmetic
Neither party is close to the 49 seats needed for a majority in the 96-member Senedd, meaning some form of co-operation between parties would be required to elect a First Minister.
According to YouGov’s second MRP, Plaid Cymru will require both Labour and the Greens for a majority(Image: YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales, 6–15 April 2026)
Dr Jac Larner of Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre offered a telling observation about the race, saying that finishing first may matter less than it appears. “Whichever party leads on seats will face the same coalition arithmetic, and that arithmetic is far more favourable to Plaid than to Reform,” he said.
Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has expressed a preference for forming a minority Plaid government, but would still need the assistance of Labour and either the Greens or the Lib Dems for a majority. Plaid and Labour together hold a majority in 47% of YouGov’s simulations.
Eluned Morgan’s seat
One of the most closely watched individual outcomes remains that of First Minister Eluned Morgan. The YouGov MRP projects that Morgan would not be returned to the Senedd — because on these figures Labour win no seats at all in Ceredigion Penfro, the constituency she is standing in. This directly contradicts the More in Common MRP we reported earlier this week, which suggested she would narrowly survive with Labour taking one of the six seats in Ceredigion Penfro. The two models agree that the outcome is on a knife-edge, but disagree on which side of the line she falls.
What the data says for our area
The raw constituency data from the YouGov MRP reveals some significant differences from the More in Common projections we reported earlier this week — particularly for Labour across south and west Wales.
In Gŵyr Abertawe (Swansea), YouGov projects Reform UK winning on 29%, ahead of Plaid on 27% and Labour on 16%. The seat breakdown gives Reform 2, Plaid 2, Labour 1 and the Greens 1 — a notable difference from More in Common, which projected Labour taking 2 seats. On YouGov’s figures, a Green candidate would take the sixth seat at Labour’s expense.
In Sir Gaerfyrddin (Carmarthenshire), the picture is even starker for Labour. Plaid lead on 37% with Reform on 31% and Labour on just 10%. YouGov projects Plaid 3 and Reform 3 — with Labour taking no seats at all. More in Common had given Labour one seat in the constituency, which would have returned Calum Higgins as Labour’s lead candidate.
In Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, YouGov projects Reform winning on 30%, with Plaid on 25%, Labour 12% and the Lib Dems also on 12%. The seat split is Reform 2, Plaid 2, Labour 1, Lib Dems 1 — with the Conservatives projected to win no seats, in contrast to the More in Common MRP which gave them one.
In Ceredigion Penfro (Pembrokeshire), Plaid dominate on 38% with Reform on 27%. YouGov projects Plaid 3, Reform 2, Greens 1 — and no Labour seat, meaning Eluned Morgan would not be returned on these figures.
In Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg (Bridgend), Reform lead on 31%, Plaid on 25%, Labour on 15%. YouGov projects Reform 2, Plaid 2, Labour 1, Conservatives 1 — again one fewer Labour seat than More in Common projected.
In Afan Ogwr Rhondda (Neath Port Talbot), Reform lead strongly on 36%, Plaid on 29%, Labour on 17%. Both models agree here: Reform 3, Plaid 2, Labour 1 — meaning Huw Irranca-Davies as Deputy First Minister would narrowly hold his seat as Labour’s sole representative.
Lower and higher end seat estimates projected by YouGov’s second MRP of the 2026 Senedd election(Image: YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales, 6–15 April 2026)
The Conservatives and smaller parties
The Welsh Conservatives are on 8% in the YouGov model and projected to return three members — but not including their leader Darren Millar on this round of results. The Greens are forecast to elect seven MSs, while the Lib Dems win only a single seat on the median projection — Jane Dodds in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd — leaving the party short of the five seats needed to form a political group in the Senedd.
The bigger picture
Both polls point to a result that would have been unthinkable at the last Senedd election in 2021. Had that election been conducted under the new electoral system, Plaid Cymru would have won 24 seats and Reform UK would have won none.
Reform UK, Plaid Cymru and the Greens set for gains in the 2026 Senedd election compared to notional 2021 results.(Image: YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales, 6–15 April 2026)
The Ipsos research also highlights the wider public mood. Around 62% of Welsh adults disagree that the Welsh Labour Government deserves to be re-elected, and high dissatisfaction ratings attach to both Keir Starmer and Eluned Morgan. Rhun ap Iorwerth is the only party leader in Wales with a positive net satisfaction rating, though 59% of Welsh adults disagree that Reform UK is ready to form a government.
The picture across all recent polling is of a country that wants change but hasn’t yet settled on what form that change should take. The Wales-wide five-poll moving average currently puts Plaid Cymru on 28.6%, Reform UK on 26.8%, and Labour on 16.8%.
The Senedd election takes place on Thursday, May 7, 2026. For our full coverage of what the polls mean for every constituency in our area, see our More in Common MRP analysis.
Related stories from Swansea Bay News
SENEDD ELECTION: Plaid on course to make history — who’s set to represent YOU on May 7?
Our More in Common MRP analysis with candidate-by-candidate projections for every constituency in our area.
Senedd Election 2026 — all our coverage
Full archive of Swansea Bay News reporting on the May 7 election.
Polling — all our coverage
Every poll we’ve reported on ahead of the Senedd election.
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@smallcircles @bengo @strypey @benpate @EUCommission @nlnet
So yes, the solutions to our wicked problems require coordinated action. It's a "coordination problem".
And it requires active listening.
How do we mobilise people at the same time in the same direction? So we overcome network effects.
Playfulness, a shared goal and vocabulary, a group of committed people / orgs, a commons sustainability model. And some initial funding and shared resources to get the ball rolling. Critical connections.
Can we get that off the ground together?
Arnold here, from my Pixelfed account for Humane Tech Community. While the https://humanetech.community is dormant for now, the intent is to revive community activity based on the insights that Social experience design provides, i.e. apply SX in the field, and build bridges between Social coding commons, Humane tech community (HTC) at https://community.humanetech.com and The Center for Humane Technology at https://humanetech.com
In 2018 I took control of the Center's forum as community facilitator and stimulator, because the founders Tristan Harris, Randy Fernando, and Aza Raskin went into a year-long strategic deliberation, talking with world leaders, and tech insiders, and being swamped by global press. When finally their strategic plans were clear, I had a session with them where they shared their outcomes and the real sense of urgency that had totally changed their initial plans to be more of a "Time well spent online" organization, which they had before as a movement.
Tristan later told me that "after over a full year of deep strategic thinking and networking we are most afraid of the total unraveling of the social fabric and society, and wars".
I may be prosy, and fluffy non-techy, at points. But the intrinsic motivation behind my work of the past 11 years, where I spent my savings to dedicate to a cause, has this same insight and urgency that drives me along and makes me stay. Despite the inherent unsustainability in this fedi & FOSS space I am convinced that here lies greatest opportunity to bring lasting positive societal change. Here, in calm networking environments. And offline in our towns, cities, rural areas, in our neighborhoods. Where all the real people are.
Morgen am Freitag den 24.4. gibt es beim Hackathon Kurzvorträge zu verschiedenen Projekten. Die Vorträge sind auch für Nicht-Nerds verständlich.
@onny stellt uns den @verwaltungstracker und die Software dahinter vor. Bei diesem Projekt geht es darum, die Umsetzung von lokalen demokratischen Entscheidungen gemeinschaftlich zu überwachen und anhand von öffentlichen Quellen zu dokumentieren.
Mehr Infos: https://eintopf.info/event/5bb974dc-b2ec-4dfc-987a-cafdfdef6879
https://aje.news/zwg046 The EU and its reluctance to sanction Israel.
𝗪𝗜𝗞𝗜𝗣𝗘𝗗𝗜𝗔'𝗦 𝗙𝗘𝗔𝗧𝗨𝗥𝗘𝗗 𝗔𝗥𝗧𝗜𝗖𝗟𝗘
✧ Nihilism ✧
Nihilism is a family of philosophical views. Existential nihilism asserts that life is inherently meaningless and lacks a higher purpose, suggesting that all individual and societal achievements are ultimately pointless. Moral nihilism denies the objective existence of morality, arguing that moral evaluation...
#familyofphilosophical #nihilism #philosophicalviews #existentialnihilismasserts #family #wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nihilism
🇪🇺 Digitally sovereign communications need an open standard to enable vendor-neutral federation and prevent lock-in.
We’ve mapped out sovereign communications across Europe that support @matrix open standard federation.
That’s sovereign and secure communications between separate organisations, and cross-border, without any reliance on a specific vendor.
Know of a deployment missing from the map? Contributions welcome.
https://element.io/blog/digital-sovereignty-is-built-on-an-open-standard-that-enables-federation/
Just when you thought things couldn’t get any worse 😡
An Australian outfit plans to fast-track a dirty new industry in Southland using FILTHY lignite (brown coal) to create urea.
Urea is synthetic nitrogen ‘fertiliser’ that drives dairy expansion, the pollution of rivers and contamination of drinking water and climate pollution.
It would be a disaster.
😅 Et dire que certain·e·s nous reprochent de faire le lien entre "écologie et social".
À la tête du Ministère de l'Écologie, Monique Barbut n'hésite pas à faire front avec "le grand capital" : En regardant cet article ⤵️ vous verrez que le terme est justifié 🤓
https://vert.eco/articles/airbus-bnp-sanofi-zara-monique-barbut-ministre-de-lecologie-est-actionnaire-de-dizaines-de-grandes-entreprises
Merci de légitimer nos luttes Mme Barbut 😘
In the Virginia Redistricting Referendum, "Yes" now currently leads by 3%.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/us/elections/results-virginia-redistricting.html
16/x
The Cook Political Report has adjusted its ratings for US House districts in Virginia after voters approved Congressional Redistricting in the state.
17/x
🆕 On the blog: How I built Calibre’s new dynamic hexagonal world map, in just 10kb.
Me: (Points out that your fandom is problematic)
You: Yeah well Star Trek is problematic too
Me: (Starts re-boosting all my old "Star Trek is problematic" posts) I GUARANTEE YOU, I KNOW
@researchfairy me, trying to get people into Star Trek:
Okay, so first of all, the first few seasons are always terrible. Please ignore all the rampant chauvinism on display, I promise this character gets his shit together later, except for season seven. You might want to skip the racism episode, and the other racism episode. This one sucks, I'm sure they meant well but it just reeks of TERFs. Oh yeah, heads up, this guy is gonna have a pretty disquieting eugenicist episode later this season. Ok yeah there's genocide man, he likes doing genocide. Here's the "war crimes are bad" episode, please don't think too hard about how it ties into all the "war crimes are fun" episodes. But you can look forward to Terrorist Man, we love him, he's got some pretty good points. Just try not to cringe at the other "wow disabled people sure suck" episode. Blink-and-you-miss-it gays. If you wonder why this sucks, it's Rick Berman. Yup, that too. And that. Also yes, that's a lot of antisemitism in one character. We know.
But other than that, it's pretty great!
A Libertarian Walks into a Bear
The Utopian Plot to Liberate an American Town
Edition
288 pages
Published in 2020
by PublicAffairs
A tiny American town’s plans for radical self-government overlooked one hairy detail: no one told the bears. Once upon a time, a group of libertarians got together and hatched the Free Town Project, a plan to take over an American town and completely eliminate its government. In 2004, they set their sights on Grafton, NH, a barely populated settlement with one paved road. When they descended on Grafton, public funding for pretty much everything shrank: the fire department, the library, the schoolhouse. State and federal laws became meek suggestions, scarcely heard in the town’s thick wilderness. The anything-goes atmosphere soon caught the attention of Grafton’s neighbors: the bears. Freedom-loving citizens ignored hunting laws and regulations on food disposal. They built a tent city in an effort to get off the grid. The bears smelled food and opportunity. A Libertarian Walks Into a Bear is the sometimes funny, sometimes terrifying tale of what happens when a government disappears into the woods. Complete with gunplay, adventure, and backstabbing politicians, this is the ultimate story of a quintessential American experiment — to live free or die, perhaps from a bear.
RE: https://mastodon.social/@_elena/116165003587967912
Update: the Heltec v3 is here!!! 🥳
I'll keep you posted regarding my experiment with off-grid mesh communication.
And if you are intrigued about this world, there is a SUPERB documentary about it by @nastasiahadjadji on ARTE (thanks @stereo for the heads-up!)
French version: https://www.arte.tv/fr/videos/126484-047-A/tracks/
German version: https://www.arte.tv/de/videos/126484-047-A/tracks/
(most of the dialogue is in English so you could follow along even if you don't speak the two languages)
Tracks - Off Grid - Regarder l’émission complète | ARTE
ARTE
@_elena @nastasiahadjadji @stereo
Keep an eye on https://reticulum.network/ as well!
Once in a while we idly wonder whatever happened with @TheOnion's purchase of InfoWars. We finally have an answer. According to Bryce P. Tetraeder, CEO of The Onion's parent company, Global Tetrahedron: "At long last, InfoWars is ours." Read more about their plans — and the swag — here.
https://flip.it/_a_k_c
Under pressure Kash Patel claims FBI has ‘evidence’ that 2020 election was stolen from Trump: ‘Stay tuned this week’ | The Independent
