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When someone tells you that AGI is inevitable and the permanent economic displacement of most humans is a foregone conclusion, what they're really telling you is that they believe the current leaders of the AI industry will execute flawlessly, indefinitely, against challenges they can't yet foresee, in an environment that's changing faster than perhaps any in history.
This seems unlikely.
There’s a reason why over a period of about 3000 years the “agricultural revolution” slowly emerged.
The climate stabilized about 12,000 years ago, transitioning to a period of low volatility. Before then, the environment changed constantly enough that no one pattern other than what we call hunter gatherer could remain flexible enough to remain viable.
We don’t live in a low volatility environment anymore, in long-term large scale, and infrastructure is not viable
Every fascist thinks their grift will last forever.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_Germany
They sow the seeds of their own self-destruction almost immediately.
The supposedly "thousand year Reich" lasted 12 years.
The Nerd Reich is unlikely to last even that long.
Why? Because the Big Oil money laundering that is keeping the bubble inflated will dry up eventually.
It's very death cult-y in that belief too.
@Daojoan New website is really spiffy!
Rupture. Of. Dream-Momentary.
@Daojoan if we thibk about it for three seconds, the day AGI exist, every filthy rich people will replace big part of the economy with it and keep it all to themselves.
They are currently selling spades to gold digger. The day they get a robot that can detect gold, extract it and turn it into jewelry, they'll buy the land and maybe sell the jewelry.
@Daojoan Recommended Reading: More Everything Forever by Adam Becker
https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/adam-becker/more-everything-forever/9781541619593/
Rome will fall…
@Daojoan tbh I sometimes think 'smart investors' don't believe in eternity at all. They try to make as much money as quickly as they can while the getting is good. Wasting resources on reforming / adapting huge organisations to new conditions will never be as attractive as just jumping ship and exploit the next possibly big thing you can run into overdrive, extract all value, then drop it. Repeat until earth is a barren husk, at which point you hope to have reached for the stars.
The Eternal Empire is called Exploitation.
@Daojoan The people propagating the inevitability of AGI or the permanence of the current LLM hype are just the current iteration of parasites who deliberately push every "next big thing" in ever faster intervals to profit off of it.
They manufacture volatility, brand it as necessary "innovation" or life saving "transformation" while selling imaginary products and services as solutions. They did it with #Apps, #Cloud, #Blockchain, #Metaverse, #VR and who knows how many technologies before quickly pivoting to the next. They have no interest in improving anything despite their bank accounts while making things worse for everyone else.
And still, nobody is able or willing to stop them...
When you tell those in charge of entrenched, seemingly eternal projects that collapse is just around the corner, observe their reactions.
Those closest to the epicenter, and projects closest to collapse, will simply dismiss you out of hand; those a little farther away will become angry.
A person who thinks, asks why, and takes things into proper consideration is a far better person to have in charge. They're also going to probably take off before things become truly unfixable...
AI leaders will not
Machines will.
(If) AGI comes, human will be to AGI
What Chickens are to humans...
... Enjoy your KFC
@Daojoan
Always love a good understatement… 🤣
@Daojoan
Also if someone tells you the permanent economic displacement of most humans is a foregone conclusion without having any plan whatsoever for how those humans will eat...
