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Molly White
Molly White
@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io  ·  activity timestamp 2 weeks ago
The Kalshi prediction market, which has been operating in the US since its 2021 launch, has inked a partnership with CNN and CNBC because everything is gambling now. Much as you can no longer watch a hockey game without seeing a gambling advertisement every 13 seconds21, Kalshi prices will now appear beside news stories — inviting readers both to view them as probabilities, and encouraging them to place their own wagers. While there has been some research validating prediction markets’ accuracy in forecasting, most of this occurred prior to the explosion in uncapped betting, when bettors were limited to wagering small amounts in tightly-constrained academic experiments. Now, with so much money on the line and so much public attention on these markets, I suspect additional factors could influence their accuracy — from bettors attempting to arbitrage between different platforms, to people attempting to manipulate the perceived “odds” of an event to their advantage. The deal is probably a win-win for both Kalshi and the news groups: Kalshi gets the imprimatur of journalistic legitimacy, while CNN — fresh off layoffs — will enjoy an infusion of cash. The specific pricetag isn’t public, but Kalshi’s recent $1 billion raise suggests the platform isn’t exactly cash‑starved.
The Kalshi prediction market, which has been operating in the US since its 2021 launch, has inked a partnership with CNN and CNBC because everything is gambling now. Much as you can no longer watch a hockey game without seeing a gambling advertisement every 13 seconds21, Kalshi prices will now appear beside news stories — inviting readers both to view them as probabilities, and encouraging them to place their own wagers. While there has been some research validating prediction markets’ accuracy in forecasting, most of this occurred prior to the explosion in uncapped betting, when bettors were limited to wagering small amounts in tightly-constrained academic experiments. Now, with so much money on the line and so much public attention on these markets, I suspect additional factors could influence their accuracy — from bettors attempting to arbitrage between different platforms, to people attempting to manipulate the perceived “odds” of an event to their advantage. The deal is probably a win-win for both Kalshi and the news groups: Kalshi gets the imprimatur of journalistic legitimacy, while CNN — fresh off layoffs — will enjoy an infusion of cash. The specific pricetag isn’t public, but Kalshi’s recent $1 billion raise suggests the platform isn’t exactly cash‑starved.
The Kalshi prediction market, which has been operating in the US since its 2021 launch, has inked a partnership with CNN and CNBC because everything is gambling now. Much as you can no longer watch a hockey game without seeing a gambling advertisement every 13 seconds21, Kalshi prices will now appear beside news stories — inviting readers both to view them as probabilities, and encouraging them to place their own wagers. While there has been some research validating prediction markets’ accuracy in forecasting, most of this occurred prior to the explosion in uncapped betting, when bettors were limited to wagering small amounts in tightly-constrained academic experiments. Now, with so much money on the line and so much public attention on these markets, I suspect additional factors could influence their accuracy — from bettors attempting to arbitrage between different platforms, to people attempting to manipulate the perceived “odds” of an event to their advantage. The deal is probably a win-win for both Kalshi and the news groups: Kalshi gets the imprimatur of journalistic legitimacy, while CNN — fresh off layoffs — will enjoy an infusion of cash. The specific pricetag isn’t public, but Kalshi’s recent $1 billion raise suggests the platform isn’t exactly cash‑starved.
Molly White
Molly White
@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io  ·  activity timestamp 2 weeks ago
Kalshi quickly filed for an emergency stay pending appeal, writing that they face “a threat of imminent criminal enforcement by Nevada authorities.”23 The Nevada Gaming Control Board has opposed this, arguing that “Kalshi cannot claim irreparable injury when all of its harms are self-inflicted. That is especially true because this Court and the CFTC warned Kalshi of the risks of expanding its business, and Kalshi went ahead and did it anyway. ... Kalshi has refused to make any good-faith effort to even attempt to comply with Nevada law. In contrast to Crypto.com and Robinhood, which entered into agreements with State Defendants to prevent enforcement, Kalshi flatly refused every option that State Defendants suggested, refused to propose any alternatives, and demanded that State Defendants stand down while it continues to aggressively expand its business.”24 Judge Gordon has not yet made a decision on the stay.
Kalshi quickly filed for an emergency stay pending appeal, writing that they face “a threat of imminent criminal enforcement by Nevada authorities.”23 The Nevada Gaming Control Board has opposed this, arguing that “Kalshi cannot claim irreparable injury when all of its harms are self-inflicted. That is especially true because this Court and the CFTC warned Kalshi of the risks of expanding its business, and Kalshi went ahead and did it anyway. ... Kalshi has refused to make any good-faith effort to even attempt to comply with Nevada law. In contrast to Crypto.com and Robinhood, which entered into agreements with State Defendants to prevent enforcement, Kalshi flatly refused every option that State Defendants suggested, refused to propose any alternatives, and demanded that State Defendants stand down while it continues to aggressively expand its business.”24 Judge Gordon has not yet made a decision on the stay.
Kalshi quickly filed for an emergency stay pending appeal, writing that they face “a threat of imminent criminal enforcement by Nevada authorities.”23 The Nevada Gaming Control Board has opposed this, arguing that “Kalshi cannot claim irreparable injury when all of its harms are self-inflicted. That is especially true because this Court and the CFTC warned Kalshi of the risks of expanding its business, and Kalshi went ahead and did it anyway. ... Kalshi has refused to make any good-faith effort to even attempt to comply with Nevada law. In contrast to Crypto.com and Robinhood, which entered into agreements with State Defendants to prevent enforcement, Kalshi flatly refused every option that State Defendants suggested, refused to propose any alternatives, and demanded that State Defendants stand down while it continues to aggressively expand its business.”24 Judge Gordon has not yet made a decision on the stay.
It’s not all good news for prediction markets, though, as they face multiple cease-and-desist orders and lawsuits from state gaming regulators. A federal court in Nevada issued a devastating ruling late last month that event contracts based on the outcomes of sports games are not swaps that would fall under the Commodity Exchange Act, and dissolving a preliminary injunction protecting Kalshi from civil or criminal action by the Nevada Gaming Control Board. Prediction markets have been relying on the swaps argument, maintaining that the CFTC’s oversight preempts the authority of state gambling commissions. Judge Andrew Gordon, in his ruling, rejected this, and added: “Licensed gaming companies have invested millions of dollars to comply with state regulations only to supposedly find out that they could have just become CFTC-registered exchanges to offer sports gambling nationwide for anyone over the age of 18 without complying with Nevada’s gaming regulatory regime or paying taxes in this state.”22
It’s not all good news for prediction markets, though, as they face multiple cease-and-desist orders and lawsuits from state gaming regulators. A federal court in Nevada issued a devastating ruling late last month that event contracts based on the outcomes of sports games are not swaps that would fall under the Commodity Exchange Act, and dissolving a preliminary injunction protecting Kalshi from civil or criminal action by the Nevada Gaming Control Board. Prediction markets have been relying on the swaps argument, maintaining that the CFTC’s oversight preempts the authority of state gambling commissions. Judge Andrew Gordon, in his ruling, rejected this, and added: “Licensed gaming companies have invested millions of dollars to comply with state regulations only to supposedly find out that they could have just become CFTC-registered exchanges to offer sports gambling nationwide for anyone over the age of 18 without complying with Nevada’s gaming regulatory regime or paying taxes in this state.”22
It’s not all good news for prediction markets, though, as they face multiple cease-and-desist orders and lawsuits from state gaming regulators. A federal court in Nevada issued a devastating ruling late last month that event contracts based on the outcomes of sports games are not swaps that would fall under the Commodity Exchange Act, and dissolving a preliminary injunction protecting Kalshi from civil or criminal action by the Nevada Gaming Control Board. Prediction markets have been relying on the swaps argument, maintaining that the CFTC’s oversight preempts the authority of state gambling commissions. Judge Andrew Gordon, in his ruling, rejected this, and added: “Licensed gaming companies have invested millions of dollars to comply with state regulations only to supposedly find out that they could have just become CFTC-registered exchanges to offer sports gambling nationwide for anyone over the age of 18 without complying with Nevada’s gaming regulatory regime or paying taxes in this state.”22
Molly White
Molly White
@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io  ·  activity timestamp 2 weeks ago
The Kalshi prediction market, which has been operating in the US since its 2021 launch, has inked a partnership with CNN and CNBC because everything is gambling now. Much as you can no longer watch a hockey game without seeing a gambling advertisement every 13 seconds21, Kalshi prices will now appear beside news stories — inviting readers both to view them as probabilities, and encouraging them to place their own wagers. While there has been some research validating prediction markets’ accuracy in forecasting, most of this occurred prior to the explosion in uncapped betting, when bettors were limited to wagering small amounts in tightly-constrained academic experiments. Now, with so much money on the line and so much public attention on these markets, I suspect additional factors could influence their accuracy — from bettors attempting to arbitrage between different platforms, to people attempting to manipulate the perceived “odds” of an event to their advantage. The deal is probably a win-win for both Kalshi and the news groups: Kalshi gets the imprimatur of journalistic legitimacy, while CNN — fresh off layoffs — will enjoy an infusion of cash. The specific pricetag isn’t public, but Kalshi’s recent $1 billion raise suggests the platform isn’t exactly cash‑starved.
The Kalshi prediction market, which has been operating in the US since its 2021 launch, has inked a partnership with CNN and CNBC because everything is gambling now. Much as you can no longer watch a hockey game without seeing a gambling advertisement every 13 seconds21, Kalshi prices will now appear beside news stories — inviting readers both to view them as probabilities, and encouraging them to place their own wagers. While there has been some research validating prediction markets’ accuracy in forecasting, most of this occurred prior to the explosion in uncapped betting, when bettors were limited to wagering small amounts in tightly-constrained academic experiments. Now, with so much money on the line and so much public attention on these markets, I suspect additional factors could influence their accuracy — from bettors attempting to arbitrage between different platforms, to people attempting to manipulate the perceived “odds” of an event to their advantage. The deal is probably a win-win for both Kalshi and the news groups: Kalshi gets the imprimatur of journalistic legitimacy, while CNN — fresh off layoffs — will enjoy an infusion of cash. The specific pricetag isn’t public, but Kalshi’s recent $1 billion raise suggests the platform isn’t exactly cash‑starved.
The Kalshi prediction market, which has been operating in the US since its 2021 launch, has inked a partnership with CNN and CNBC because everything is gambling now. Much as you can no longer watch a hockey game without seeing a gambling advertisement every 13 seconds21, Kalshi prices will now appear beside news stories — inviting readers both to view them as probabilities, and encouraging them to place their own wagers. While there has been some research validating prediction markets’ accuracy in forecasting, most of this occurred prior to the explosion in uncapped betting, when bettors were limited to wagering small amounts in tightly-constrained academic experiments. Now, with so much money on the line and so much public attention on these markets, I suspect additional factors could influence their accuracy — from bettors attempting to arbitrage between different platforms, to people attempting to manipulate the perceived “odds” of an event to their advantage. The deal is probably a win-win for both Kalshi and the news groups: Kalshi gets the imprimatur of journalistic legitimacy, while CNN — fresh off layoffs — will enjoy an infusion of cash. The specific pricetag isn’t public, but Kalshi’s recent $1 billion raise suggests the platform isn’t exactly cash‑starved.
Miguel Afonso Caetano
Miguel Afonso Caetano
@remixtures@tldr.nettime.org  ·  activity timestamp 4 months ago
Miguel Afonso Caetano
Miguel Afonso Caetano
@remixtures@tldr.nettime.org  ·  activity timestamp 4 months ago