prediction markets are creating revolutionary new vectors for corruption
#Kalshi #Polymarket #predictionMarkets #KarolineLeavitt #uspol #corruption
A Kalshi partnership with CNN and CNBC will place Kalshi prices alongside news stories — inviting readers to view these as probabilities and encouraging them to place their own wagers. Kalshi gets the imprimatur of journalistic legitimacy; CNN — fresh off layoffs — gets cash.
#crypto #cryptocurrency #USpol #USpolitics #Kalshi #PredictionMarkets #CitationNeededNewsletter
It’s not all good news for Kalshi, though: a federal judge in Nevada has decided their events contracts are not “swaps” under the CFTC and dissolved a preliminary injunction protecting them from civil and criminal action by the Nevada Gaming Control Board.
#crypto #cryptocurrency #USpol #USpolitics #Kalshi #PredictionMarkets #CitationNeededNewsletter
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A Kalshi partnership with CNN and CNBC will place Kalshi prices alongside news stories — inviting readers to view these as probabilities and encouraging them to place their own wagers. Kalshi gets the imprimatur of journalistic legitimacy; CNN — fresh off layoffs — gets cash.
#crypto #cryptocurrency #USpol #USpolitics #Kalshi #PredictionMarkets #CitationNeededNewsletter
Agaric Tech Collective
boosted
"Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket opened betting markets on President Donald Trump being “out as president” as social media platforms erupted over the long weekend with rumors that he had died. The competing platforms, which both list Donald Trump Jr. as an adviser, launched their markets after the typically omnipresent Trump vanished from public view, with press photographers reduced to capturing grainy, distant shots that call to mind Bigfoot sightings. Recent appearances had shown Trump with swollen ankles and bruised hands, and online sleuths seized on holiday road closures around Walter Reed Medical Center and recent press appearances by Vice President Vance stating his readiness to assume the presidency as further evidence of Trump’s demise.
Before these direct bets, there had been a spike in activity in existing markets that would have served as proxy bets for Trump’s death. A Polymarket bet on “First leader out of power in 2025?” showed Trump’s odds climbing from around 5% prior to the weekend to as high as 8.6%. On Kalshi, “JD Vance out as Vice President of the United States this year?” (a market that would resolve to “yes” if Vance assumed the presidency) spiked from around 6% to above 15% — its highest since the market’s July creation. Other bets on Trump’s resignation or removal via the 25th Amendment also spiked."
"Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket opened betting markets on President Donald Trump being “out as president” as social media platforms erupted over the long weekend with rumors that he had died. The competing platforms, which both list Donald Trump Jr. as an adviser, launched their markets after the typically omnipresent Trump vanished from public view, with press photographers reduced to capturing grainy, distant shots that call to mind Bigfoot sightings. Recent appearances had shown Trump with swollen ankles and bruised hands, and online sleuths seized on holiday road closures around Walter Reed Medical Center and recent press appearances by Vice President Vance stating his readiness to assume the presidency as further evidence of Trump’s demise.
Before these direct bets, there had been a spike in activity in existing markets that would have served as proxy bets for Trump’s death. A Polymarket bet on “First leader out of power in 2025?” showed Trump’s odds climbing from around 5% prior to the weekend to as high as 8.6%. On Kalshi, “JD Vance out as Vice President of the United States this year?” (a market that would resolve to “yes” if Vance assumed the presidency) spiked from around 6% to above 15% — its highest since the market’s July creation. Other bets on Trump’s resignation or removal via the 25th Amendment also spiked."