"Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket opened betting markets on President Donald Trump being “out as president” as social media platforms erupted over the long weekend with rumors that he had died. The competing platforms, which both list Donald Trump Jr. as an adviser, launched their markets after the typically omnipresent Trump vanished from public view, with press photographers reduced to capturing grainy, distant shots that call to mind Bigfoot sightings. Recent appearances had shown Trump with swollen ankles and bruised hands, and online sleuths seized on holiday road closures around Walter Reed Medical Center and recent press appearances by Vice President Vance stating his readiness to assume the presidency as further evidence of Trump’s demise.
Before these direct bets, there had been a spike in activity in existing markets that would have served as proxy bets for Trump’s death. A Polymarket bet on “First leader out of power in 2025?” showed Trump’s odds climbing from around 5% prior to the weekend to as high as 8.6%. On Kalshi, “JD Vance out as Vice President of the United States this year?” (a market that would resolve to “yes” if Vance assumed the presidency) spiked from around 6% to above 15% — its highest since the market’s July creation. Other bets on Trump’s resignation or removal via the 25th Amendment also spiked."