Tuesday 11-18 #bubblewatch

It appears the market is expecting bad news from both the Nvidia earnings report tomorrow and the official US government economic figures out Thursday.

> U.S. stocks extend sell-off, Treasury yields drop as valuation worries weigh on risk appetite. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2025-11-18/

Again we are seeing money flee from tech and #crypto to blue chip industrials and other 'safe havens'. Forex, US Treasury bond yields are down, meaning more people are bidding on them.

#economy

Tuesday 11-18 #bubblewatch

It appears the market is expecting bad news from both the Nvidia earnings report tomorrow and the official US government economic figures out Thursday.

> U.S. stocks extend sell-off, Treasury yields drop as valuation worries weigh on risk appetite. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2025-11-18/

Again we are seeing money flee from tech and #crypto to blue chip industrials and other 'safe havens'. Forex, US Treasury bond yields are down, meaning more people are bidding on them.

#economy

Monday 11-17 #bubblewatch

When the insiders start pulling out, you know you have a bubble.

> Peter Thiel dumps entire Nvidia stake, slashes Tesla holdings amid bubble fears. https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/peter-thiel-dumps-entire-nvidia-stake-slashes-tesla-holdings-amid-bubble-fears-4320129

(Apparently Thiel has been doing it the sneaky way since July.)

Meanwhile today's market is mixed.

> Wall Street fluctuates ahead of Nvidia results, government data. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-rise-markets-await-nvidia-earnings-government-data-2025-11-17/

Coming this week: Nvidia's earnings report and the US jobs report.

Friday 11-14 #bubblewatch

I'm staying with the roller coaster metaphor, because after yesterday's across-the-board selloff, today the market is rising across-the-board.

> S&P 500 climbs after selloff; traders look to Nvidia report. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/us-futures-drop-fading-december-rate-cut-expectations-2025-11-14/

The talk right now is all about the Nvidia earnings report. The problem with that? It's going *look* good because of all those circular deals. The real question is 'Net Profit' and those circular deals don't generate profit.

ETA: Not P/E.

Wednesday 11-12 #bubblewatch

Today the roller coaster is going around a long curve.

> Wall St mixed as investors offload tech stocks; federal reopening anticipated. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-stock-futures-advance-investors-cheer-possible-end-federal-shutdown-2025-11-12/

Dow Jones is up to record numbers, tech stocks are down – including some of the biggest players. I mentioned the 'Hindenburg Omen' up thread and this is what it looks like: smart(er) money fleeing from risk to hopefully safe havens.

Thursday 11-13 #bubblewatch

To extend the roller coaster metaphor yet again, this morning it's got to that point where it quickly goes over a series of small spikes and dips.

> Wall Street sinks as investors fret about rate cuts. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-futures-muted-traders-await-data-after-federal-reopen-2025-11-13/

Trading is, as they say, 'mixed'.

In related news:

> Michael Burry of 'Big Short' fame deregisters Scion Asset Management. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/michael-burry-big-short-fame-deregisters-scion-asset-management-2025-11-13/

IOW? Burry is 'going dark' to keep others from watching his short bets on the market.

Wednesday 11-12 #bubblewatch

Today the roller coaster is going around a long curve.

> Wall St mixed as investors offload tech stocks; federal reopening anticipated. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-stock-futures-advance-investors-cheer-possible-end-federal-shutdown-2025-11-12/

Dow Jones is up to record numbers, tech stocks are down – including some of the biggest players. I mentioned the 'Hindenburg Omen' up thread and this is what it looks like: smart(er) money fleeing from risk to hopefully safe havens.

Tuesday 11-11 #bubblewatch

Aaaaannd the #AI #bubble roller coaster is going back down.

> S&P 500, Nasdaq fall as AI valuation worries resurface. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/us-futures-retreat-tech-concerns-resurface-federal-reopening-awaited-2025-11-11/

To answer yesterday's question? I'm going with, "Some investors were buying the dip." But I might change that to 'Extinction Burst' if we see daily peaks and valleys like this for another week.

In related news, SoftBank is making a weird move. Read the whole conversation here:

> https://wandering.shop/@cstross/115530746666246097

#economy

Monday 11-10 #bubblewatch

The market, especially #AI stocks, saw a big rebound today.

> Wall Street jumps, Nvidia and Palantir lead AI surge. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-rise-hopes-end-government-shutdown-2025-11-10/

Open question: Is this 'buying the dip', a vote of confidence in the AI companies, or an #ExtinctionBurst?

> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinction_(psychology)#Extinction_Burst

Stay tuned for tomorrows bubblewatch, as we find out!

#economy

New #bubblewatch tomorrow, as markets open overnight.

In the meantime, Today I Learned #TIL about the 'Hindenburg Omen'.

> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_Omen

This is a market technical analysis pattern, which supposedly predicts stock market crashes. It happens when some stocks hit new highs and others hit new lows simultaneously.

*Apparently this happened three times last week.*

Something else to watch for tomorrow morning…

#economy

Nov 7 #bubblewatch update:

Market down a second day. The Nasdaq Composite is again seeing the biggest drop.

> Wall Street tumbles as concerns over economy, tech valuations weigh. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/wall-street-futures-struggle-traction-end-wobbly-week-2025-11-07/

> "Wall Street's main indexes extended losses to a second session on Friday, and were set for weekly declines, as concerns about the economy and sky-high valuations in the technology sector soured sentiment."

#economy

@cstross

Yeah, that's why I'm using the #bubblewatch hashtag. This really feels like familiar territory to me, but there's no way to forecast exactly when things will happen or how the collapse will proceed.

We only know what economist Herbert Stein knew:

> "If something cannot go on forever it will stop."

And, in this case, I think the AI bubble is very close to that stopping point.

Tomorrow's gonna be a bad day on the US #StockMarket. It ended down today and Asian markets are dropping right now.

> Morning Bid: Pyrotechnics in stocks and US elections. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2025-11-05/

> Asian stocks jolted by valuation fears, tech sector hit hard. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2025-11-05/

Softbank is down nearly -11% as I type this. And apparently that's a bounce from -14%.

European stocks are joining the selloff in early trading…

#economy #bubblewatch