WHOOPS: Softbank is cashing out of Nvidia! AI casino's closing, take your winnings *right now* ... or don't. Sucker. https://apnews.com/article/japan-softbank-son-nvidia-ai-chips-d8a10172850628c317a214280a4d94c9
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@cstross Who sells shares in the shovel factory during a gold rush?
@cstross The AI bubble started to burst, hope it will be quick so company stop putting this bullshit everywhere.
@cstross They have done the maths.
@cstross France 24 is about to debate this topic on their English newscast.
@cstross
It's actually worsening AI psychosis, gpt told them it needed more money directly
This is VERY interesting. It seems Asian investors have been buying Softbank shares precisely because those Nvidia shares (and other #AI holdings) were making Softbank into a Japanese proxy for USA AI companies.
Then in the last week or so Softbank's value has plummeted (more than 10%) precisely because Asian investors were fleeing AI stocks.
So this move means Softbank itself is divesting from AI, both to cash out and to protect it's own share prices.
Of course the above is contingent on them continuing to divest from AI stocks. If it turns out they *are* pumping that Nvidia money into OpenAI and the like as the article states? Then I have no idea what Softbank is up to.
Unless they know something about Nvidia no one else does. But Nvidia is the linchpin of the entire AI bubble, if it goes none of the rest will be worth a pin. So that doesn't make sense either.
@jackwilliambell AIUI Softbank had some kind of option to buy a shitload of OpenAI shares if OpenAI transitioned to a for-profit model in Q4/25, ahead of OpenAI's trailed IPO in Q2/26. So it might be as simple and bone-headed as a bet that OpenAI shares will hold up long enough for Softbank to make a profit in 6-8 months' time.
Could be. But it doesn't seem like as good a bet as those Nvidia shares over the same period.
OTOH in business there's talk and there's action. Quite often the two will diverge greatly. Could be they are trying to avoid popping the bubble themselves until they can dump as many of their other AI holdings as possible.
Wild theory: They figure dumping Nvidia first won't pop the bubble. Yet.
@jackwilliambell They have to cough up $22Bn for the OpenAI stake. Whereas Nvidia is already probably at peak value (and Softbank invested in them ages ago).
I wasn't aware they had bought into Nvidia before the runup. That's an interesting datum…
So they are using their Nvidia holdings inflated value to double down? Even though it risks popping the bubble now AND continuing to depress their own share value?
Gambling is a dangerous addiction for some people. I once worked with a guy with a math degree who claimed to have worked out a system for beating craps.
He was a very smart idiot. And much poorer after he tried it.
@cstross I couldn't agree more that a bad crash is coming, but I don't think this is it, yet - they're taking investment out of Nvidia in order to move it to OpenAI.
Incidentally, I love that data centers are now apparently measured in gigawatts, as if consuming energy was their principal feature. Not computations per second, or number of racks, or acreage, or construction cost.
@cstross And here we have EU trying to ”get in the game” by selling out our privacy..
Idiots!
@cstross So, Softbank at least has found its Greater Fool(s).
@cstross If they're indeed selling Nvidia to invest in OpenAI as the article claims, all they're doing is exposing themselves to much more downside risk imho. At least Nvidia makes things, so they're not going to pop with the bubble.
@cstross If any of the doomsayers care (they don’t) a trillion is a thousand billions, Nvidia’s market cap is 4.84 trillion, 5.8 billion is around 0.11% of that. Womp womp.
@cstross and putting it into those using the chips to build Stargate. Just adjusting the balance sheet to fund a different arm of BATMMAAN.
Might as well call them SPECTRE.
@cstross Just shifting the money to OpenAI it seems from the article. So, still within the incestuous ball of companies shuffling cash around.
@cstross Given Softbank and Masayoshi Son's preternatural ability to pick the absolute worst side of every bet,, I started questioning the reality of the AI bubble for a second there.
But turns out SB is cashing out its casino bet on Nvidia… to place it all on OpenAI. 🤣
We're safe…
@cstross Could you elaborate for an idiot like me? How did you get from 'softbank moves 5.8bln from nvidia to openai' to 'AI casino's closing' ? I mean, I'd like to see that bubble crash and burn as much as the next person, consequences be damned, but I'm woefully unequipped to interpret these headlines.
Always a good idea to get off a bandwagon before it becomes a tumbril!
@cstross I wish! But it says in the story that is sold its share in order to invest in Open AI, so it looks like it's just moving from one gen AI to another: "Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. said it sold the stake in Silicon Vally-based Nvidia in October, a move that reflects its shift in focus to OpenAI, owner of the artificial intelligence chatbot ChatGPT."
I mean, I'm very happy for SoftBank to dump Nvidia, but not so happy for its boosting OpenAI
@cstross lol they took advantage of the US bank holiday today. "Remember" *this*, suckers
@cstross They shift the money from nvidia to.... openai?! 🤔
ROFL. 😂 🤣 🍿
@cstross once again, my investment in popcorn futures proves wise.
The next few months are going to be interesting.
My utterly uninformed opinion: OpenAI takes a pounding but survives, Anthropic takes more of a beating but just about survives. XAI tanks the Musk empire (this might be wishful thinking). Thousands of AI startups fail, some pivot back to crypto. The Data Centre boom busts, but then resumes.
VCs take record losses but don’t learn anything, continue as normal.
@cstross ... and chucks it into OpenAI (implies the article)
@cstross smiling man dot jpg
@cstross oops - that's my pension and share ISA done for.
@cstross This come from the calculation that the electricity supply will not be able to follow the demand
@cstross I haven't checked exchange rates in quite a while and my knowledge of business/finance things is very limited, but "$5.8 billion" sounds like quite a lot of money to me.
@confuseacat In terms of the AI bubble, $5.8Bn is peanuts. (There are trillions in play, and all of it is funny money that's going to go away in a puff of disappointment at some point.)
@cstross is this the start of the end? 🤞🏻
@cstross AP item doesn't say it but reportedly Masa is going to plow the money into OpenAI, which he had previously committed to funding with $billions he didn't have. Lookin' like a good ol Softbank getting in at the top of the market move.
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