Track of Melissa has taken the storm much more west ward than I hoped, and it's smack S off of Jamaica island. This means the ENE stream which WILL push it NE will go through the most populous area.
Latest estimates put the storm going much further NE, because the ENE stream has solidified and grown stronger, maybe due to Tropical Storm Sonia bumping a mass of air, WSW off Mexico.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/281150.shtml?
