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@darkghosthunter@mastodon.social  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

So, someone told me that he was "divesting" from northamerican companies and moving to gold and bonds, before euros and yuan.

His reason? «Once the #AIBubble explodes, the dollar is going to plummet harder than a stone»

Not a finance guy, but is this true?

#Financing #Finance #Investment #Invest #Investments #Market #Stocks #StockMarket #Stonks #AI

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David Chisnall (*Now with 50% more sarcasm!*)
David Chisnall (*Now with 50% more sarcasm!*)
@david_chisnall@infosec.exchange replied  ·  activity timestamp 21 hours ago

@darkghosthunter I believe it will. The AI bubble is also propping up the commercial real estate bubble and includes a phenomenal amount of debt. The problem with the 2008 real-estate crash was that a lot of banks held bad debt and there was a risk of contagion as each bank that failed placed strain on the remaining ones. The current financial system looks a lot like this, with lots of lenders overextended, lack of diversification, and a huge pile of bad debt.

The 2008 crisis would have been much worse without a huge amount of international cooperation to prop up banks in a few key places to stop the crash spreading (it could have been better if they had disincentivised doing it again). Can you imagine Donald Trump leading, or even joining, this kind of international cooperation? If I were an EU finance minister, I would be working hard with my peers to ensure that we had a firewall in the banking system at the border of the USA. My main priority would be ensuring that, when the US economy collapses, the damage to the EU is limited. I would not expect it to be possible to protect the US economy.

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@darkghosthunter@mastodon.social replied  ·  activity timestamp 10 hours ago

@david_chisnall Same here, but it's a market that will fall on the consumer side, which means Europe an Asia will sell _less_.

Given how bad Trump has been playing his cards, the moment the bubble pops, I expect countries to isolate the US market to avoid the dragging them into the void.

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