After missing last month's update for reason of government shutdown, #CDC's most recent dataset, updated Friday, finally breaks out estimates for multiple XFG subvariants.
Nowcast suggests three XFG strains have gained significant share in past four weeks, along with two recombinants, XFZ (child of PG.3.2 and XFC.3) and XFV (child of LP.8.1 and XFG.3.3.1).
Note that, in absence of robust data from states, CDC has given up modeling historical estimates, instead giving only shares of reported sequences.
Raj's dashboard, updated two weeks ago, shows Stratus wildly diversified, having spawned multiple third-generation pango aliases & descendant recombinants. Previous data had suggested XFG was stagnant.
GISAID data for the latter two-weeks-and-change of the most recent period is dominated by submissions from California (120 sequences), followed by New York (87), Minnesota (49), and Colorado (36)—paltry all round.
❖ #ThisIsOurPolio #variants #CovidIsNotOver #dataviz #datavis
![Chart: Est. & Reported U.S. Variant Proportions by Common Name
Sources: CDC, Cov-Lineages, NYITCOM, D. Focosi, WHN, others
[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]
Reskin of CDC's Variants Nowcast, and any significant variants in GISAID not broken out by CDC.
Four bar-style tree-charts, for four-week periods through Oct 26–Nov 22. Legend of last four-week period, organized by subheadings of color-grouped families and convergent clusters. Percentages overlay each color key, reflecting share as of most recent tree-chart.
Nearly all WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1 dynasty. Stratus XFG family accounts for over four fifths share.
For 9/28–10/25, packed bubble charts fill single-variant tiles, reflecting GISAID detail not shown by CDC's Nowcast.
Legend:
XFG [reds]:
69% - XFG.2†, XFG.3†, XFG.3.4.1 / QF†, XFG.5.1†, XFG.4.1†, XFG.5.2†, XFG.3.4.3 / QS† & other Stratus XFG
10% - XFG.14.1
8% - XFG.1 & XFG.6
JN.1.11 [browns]:
9% - XFZ, XFV, NW.1 & FDA-Vaccine-Target LP.8.1
0% - other JN.1.11
JN.1 + FLiRT-LF-7 [blues]:
⅛% - LF.7.9
¼% - other LF.7
LF.7 + NTD-meets-RBD [purples]:
⅕% - XFC
0% - other LF.7 + NTD-meets-RBD
WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1 [green]:
0% - XEC
Other [greys]:
4% - Nimbus NB.1.8.1 / PQ, XFY & XDV.1
⅓% - Other (not specified)
_____
XFC is a child of April's WHO-Vaccine-Target scion LF.7 and Mayish JN.1.11 scion LP.8.1.1 / NY.
XFZ is a child of left-field WHO-Vaccine-Target scion PG.3.2 and Augustish recombinant kid XFC.3.
[Some footnotes omitted, due to too many recombinants.]](https://spaces.hcommons.social/media_attachments/files/115/593/558/972/069/259/original/acda4b217362c2d6.jpg)
![Chart: Estimated and Reported U.S. Variant Proportions by Common Name
Sources: CDC, Cov-Lineages, NYITCOM, D. Focosi, WHN, others
[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]
Reskin of CDC's Variants Nowcast, and any significant variants in GISAID not broken out by CDC.
Four bar-style tree-charts, for four-week periods through Oct 26–Nov 22. Legend of last four-week period, organized by subheadings of color-grouped families and convergent clusters. Percentages overlay each color key, reflecting share as of most recent tree-chart.
Nearly all WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1 dynasty. Stratus XFG family accounts for over four fifths share.
For 10/26–11/22, packed bubble charts fill single-variant tiles, indicating diversification (per GISAID) not apparent from CDC's Nowcast.
Legend:
XFG [reds]:
69% - XFG.2†, XFG.3†, XFG.3.4.1 / QF†, XFG.4.1† & other Stratus XFG
10% - XFG.14.1
8% - XFG.6, XFG.1.1† & other XFG.1
JN.1.11 [browns]:
9% - XFZ, XFV, NW.1 & FDA-Vaccine-Target LP.8.1
0% - other JN.1.11
JN.1 + FLiRT-LF-7 [blues]:
⅛% - LF.7.9
¼% - other LF.7
LF.7 + NTD-meets-RBD [purples]:
⅕% - XFC
0% - other LF.7 + NTD-meets-RBD
WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1 [green]:
0% - XEC
Other [greys]:
4% - Nimbus NB.1.8.1 / PQ, XFY & XDV.1
⅓% - Other (not specified)
_____
XFC is a child of April's WHO-Vaccine-Target scion LF.7 and Mayish JN.1.11 scion LP.8.1.1 / NY.
XFZ is a child of left-field WHO-Vaccine-Target scion PG.3.2 and Augustish recombinant kid XFC.3.
[Some footnotes omitted, due to too many recombinants.]](https://spaces.hcommons.social/media_attachments/files/115/604/954/797/965/200/original/9fd4ea416a51f94d.jpg)