@quixoticgeek Consider that the fall of Russia is largely down to economic mismanagement—they failed to transition from a resource extraction economy to a skills economy, and they're losing the war because resource export chokepoints are vulnerable to air attacks—and the AI bubble is due to investors seeking shelter for their capital.
I don't understand it but these look like huge pieces of a 21st century jigsaw puzzle (energy transition from oil to renewables, end of Moore's Law hitting tech).
Everyone forgets #India. There's a plausible case to be made that India just waits out the now inevitable demographic timebomb that has been ticking away for years in the Russian Federation, and just takes over the Russian Far East by dint of being the majority people left there.
I first came across this idea via a random recommendation of #ElviraBary, but xe is not the only person talking about this.