To avoid a write-down of these assets, major Al model providers would ideally generate a return on invested capital (ROIC) of about 25 percent, Sommer said. (That's about what Amazon, Microsoft, and Google tend to earn on their overall capital investments.) On the other hand, if the returns fall below 12 percent, institutional capital loses interest - there's better money elsewhere, Sommer said. Below 7 percent, you're in write-down territory, which is "an unmitigated disaster for all of the investors in this technology," Sommer said.
To reach that bare minimum of 7 percent, Gartner forecasts that large AI companies would need to earn cumulatively close to $7 trillion in AI-driven revenue through 2029, which is close to $2 trillion per year by the end of the period. In order to achieve "historic returns," the providers would need to earn nearly $8.2 trillion in the same period.