A slide from the talk showing the following example calculation on the success rate of AI agents doing a task that consists of multiple steps: Given a generous 95% per step accuracy, a 10-step task only has ~60% success rate, a 30-step task even only has a ~21% success rate. The formula for calculation is: S(n) = r^n, where - S(n) is the probability of success after n steps - r is the reliability per step - n is the integer number of steps (1, 2, 3, ...)