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With the NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus" and XFG.* "Stratus" variants carving up dominance around the globe, it is time to ponder which variant might drive the next wave.

The leading contender at this point is PY.1.1.1. It is still at a low frequency in the global view, but is already widespread geographically and showing strong recent growth.

XFG.1.1 is showing strong recent growth.

I added some other contenders for monitoring, although they don’t seem significant so far: XEC.27.2.*, XFV, XFW, XFZ and XGA.

#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #PY_1_1_1 #XFG_1_1
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Mike Honey

@mike_honey_@aus.social replied · 2 weeks ago

PY.1.1.1 is descended from "FLiRT" variant LF.7.9.1. PY.1.1 added the K679R mutation, then PY.1.1.1 added A435S (same mutation that characterised NB.1.8.1).

PY.1.1.1 is presumed to have originated from India, rising sharply to 11% frequency there by mid-July. It has also shown signs of growth in several other countries, notably rising to 8% in Canada and finishing at 6% in Singapore.
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Mike Honey

@mike_honey_@aus.social replied · 2 weeks ago

Here’s the latest variant picture for India. There was a burst of sequencing data in late May, probably prompted by their XFG.* wave. But the data soon slowed and then came to a complete stop during July.
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Mike Honey

@mike_honey_@aus.social replied · 2 weeks ago

Here’s the latest variant picture for Singapore. The wild spike in the PY.1.1.1 frequency (included in the FLiRT series) looks to be an artefact of a gap in the sequencing data from Singapore, from mid-August to mid-September. They have shared almost 60 samples since then so the final level of 6% is a more reliable gauge.
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Mike Honey

@mike_honey_@aus.social replied · 2 weeks ago

Here's a map showing the global spread of the PY.1.1.1 variant. The first samples were reported simultaneously from Manipur, India and New South Wales, Australia in late May.

Locations are approximate - typically country and state/province.
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