Gernot Wagner
@gwagner@fediscience.org  ·  activity timestamp 4 days ago

You know how the Gulf Stream (AMOC, for the climate nerd set) keeps Europe habitable?

The latest tipping points paper is making the rounds for good reason. AMOC collapses past 2100 in all projections https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adfa3b

Good @TheEconomist take https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/08/14/the-shutdown-of-ocean-currents-could-freeze-europe?giftId=b5992cb2-4327-4199-9ac4-88c22f7fbd10&utm_campaign=gifted_article [gift link]

#climate #amoc #tippingpoints #europe #eu

Figure 1. (upper) Ensemble means of the AMOC strength and (below) total ocean heat transport at 26°N in the model simulations in which the northern AMOC shuts down. The letters are ordered from top to bottom to correspond to lines with decreasing values in year 2300/2500. The short cyan line shows the observed (yet insignificant) trend of the RAPID observations [21, 22] for 2005–2023 (upper) and 2005–2020 [23] (below).
Figure 1. (upper) Ensemble means of the AMOC strength and (below) total ocean heat transport at 26°N in the model simulations in which the northern AMOC shuts down. The letters are ordered from top to bottom to correspond to lines with decreasing values in year 2300/2500. The short cyan line shows the observed (yet insignificant) trend of the RAPID observations [21, 22] for 2005–2023 (upper) and 2005–2020 [23] (below).
Figure 1. (upper) Ensemble means of the AMOC strength and (below) total ocean heat transport at 26°N in the model simulations in which the northern AMOC shuts down. The letters are ordered from top to bottom to correspond to lines with decreasing values in year 2300/2500. The short cyan line shows the observed (yet insignificant) trend of the RAPID observations [21, 22] for 2005–2023 (upper) and 2005–2020 [23] (below).