#Tag
A sub-field of science looks at whether the Atlantic ocean circulation #AMOC has weakened. Direct measurements suggest yes but only started in 2004. So people look at temperature and salinity data.
A new study finds a robust slowdown fingerprint at 1000–2000 m depth.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02793-1
Iceland is right to consider this an existential threat.
https://www.dagens.com/news/iceland-declares-ocean-current-instability-a-national-security-risk
One of the reasons why an #AMOC shutdown “cannot be considered a low likelihood risk anymore” is this study:
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adfa3b
And if you want to know more what this is about, watch my short presentation here: https://youtu.be/ULJXqOZuY-8?si=uQOoLVEwet_7hxDY
A sub-field of science looks at whether the Atlantic ocean circulation #AMOC has weakened. Direct measurements suggest yes but only started in 2004. So people look at temperature and salinity data.
A new study finds a robust slowdown fingerprint at 1000–2000 m depth.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02793-1
The potential collapse of the AMOC is shifting from theory to real climate risk. Iceland now treats it as a national security threat. For data and climate analytics, it’s a call to improve forecasting, scenario modeling, and risk intelligence. Climate is the ultimate data challenge.
#AMOC #Climate #Data #DataScience #Iceland #ClimateCollapse #GlobalWarming #forecasting
https://cleantechnica.com/2025/11/13/iceland-warns-slower-amoc-is-a-security-threat-to-the-nation/
The potential collapse of the AMOC is shifting from theory to real climate risk. Iceland now treats it as a national security threat. For data and climate analytics, it’s a call to improve forecasting, scenario modeling, and risk intelligence. Climate is the ultimate data challenge.
#AMOC #Climate #Data #DataScience #Iceland #ClimateCollapse #GlobalWarming #forecasting
https://cleantechnica.com/2025/11/13/iceland-warns-slower-amoc-is-a-security-threat-to-the-nation/
The government of Iceland now considers this a national security threat. https://www.arctictoday.com/iceland-sees-security-risk-existential-threat-in-atlantic-ocean-currents-possible-collapse/
And the Foreign Intelligence Service of Germany together with other German institutions published a National Climate Risk Assessment this year.
Here is what it says about #AMOC tipping risk.
Not every country agrees with denying climate change ....
A crucial system of ocean ( AMOC ( Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ) ) currents may be on course to collapse.
Iceland just declared it a national security threat
#climatechange #climateaction #nationalsecurity #AMOC
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/11/15/climate/iceland-warming-current-amoc-collapse-threat
Not every country agrees with denying climate change ....
A crucial system of ocean ( AMOC ( Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ) ) currents may be on course to collapse.
Iceland just declared it a national security threat
#climatechange #climateaction #nationalsecurity #AMOC
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/11/15/climate/iceland-warming-current-amoc-collapse-threat
" #Iceland deems possible #Atlantic current collapse a security risk"
If the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation #AMOC collapses, all of Northern #Europe is screwed. It won't happen soon, but it is a real possibility
All we have to do is take #ClimateChange seriously... oh, yeah. Fuck.
" #Iceland deems possible #Atlantic current collapse a security risk"
If the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation #AMOC collapses, all of Northern #Europe is screwed. It won't happen soon, but it is a real possibility
All we have to do is take #ClimateChange seriously... oh, yeah. Fuck.
Here is a new short interview I did about the risk of a major ocean circulation change in the Atlantic. #AMOC
Check it out - e.g. if you are unclear about the difference between the tipping point and the point of shutdown.
https://cwrrr.org/interviews/cwr-talks-to-prof-stefan-rahmstorf-on-the-decades-away-breakdown-of-the-atlantic-current/
Here is a new short interview I did about the risk of a major ocean circulation change in the Atlantic. #AMOC
Check it out - e.g. if you are unclear about the difference between the tipping point and the point of shutdown.
https://cwrrr.org/interviews/cwr-talks-to-prof-stefan-rahmstorf-on-the-decades-away-breakdown-of-the-atlantic-current/
You know how the Gulf Stream (AMOC, for the climate nerd set) keeps Europe habitable?
The latest tipping points paper is making the rounds for good reason. AMOC collapses past 2100 in all projections https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adfa3b
Good @TheEconomist take https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/08/14/the-shutdown-of-ocean-currents-could-freeze-europe?giftId=b5992cb2-4327-4199-9ac4-88c22f7fbd10&utm_campaign=gifted_article [gift link]
![Figure 1. (upper) Ensemble means of the AMOC strength and (below) total ocean heat transport at 26°N in the model simulations in which the northern AMOC shuts down. The letters are ordered from top to bottom to correspond to lines with decreasing values in year 2300/2500. The short cyan line shows the observed (yet insignificant) trend of the RAPID observations [21, 22] for 2005–2023 (upper) and 2005–2020 [23] (below).](https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/115/118/723/246/595/716/original/dc283fdf764f87df.png)
You know how the Gulf Stream (AMOC, for the climate nerd set) keeps Europe habitable?
The latest tipping points paper is making the rounds for good reason. AMOC collapses past 2100 in all projections https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adfa3b
Good @TheEconomist take https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/08/14/the-shutdown-of-ocean-currents-could-freeze-europe?giftId=b5992cb2-4327-4199-9ac4-88c22f7fbd10&utm_campaign=gifted_article [gift link]
Interactive visualization of different global scenarios of AMOC slowdown/shutdown
#climate#ClimateScience #climatechange#ClimateEmergency#ClimateCrisis#ClimateBreakdown#ClimateDisruption#globalWarming#globalHeating#ExtremeWeather#EcosystemCollapse#GreenhouseGases#polycrisis
Rahmstorf, August 28th, 2025: "I was shocked when I first saw these results from standard climate models used in IPCC reports: for high emissions, the Atlantic overturning circulation #AMOC shuts down in all 9 models that ran past 2100, and is well on the way to shutdown by 2100.
Our paper on that is out today.🧵
Only a few models have continued intermediate or low emission scenarios beyond the year 2100. In some of them the #AMOC shuts down as well. So even for low emissions (compatible with the Paris agreement) we are not safe. But the risk is much smaller.
We estimate the probability of shutdown as 70% for high emissions and 25% for low emissions based on the CMIP6 models.
These are rough estimates, but main point is: this is a risk that I used to consider <10%, and given the devastating impacts lasting many centuries we really want this to be <1%.
➡ Our paper is open access here: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adfa3b
Are you interested in the #AMOC?
➡ My popular article in Oceanography magazine: https://tos.org/oceanography/article/is-the-atlantic-overturning-circulation-approaching-a-tipping-point
➡ My recent talk on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHNNW8c_FaA
" - Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf @rahmstorf on Bluesky (source: threads https://bsky.app/profile/rahmstorf.bsky.social/post/3lxhvreyjms2u and https://bsky.app/profile/rahmstorf.bsky.social/post/3lxhyrlmfgs2u )
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