Gernot Wagner
@gwagner@fediscience.org  ·  activity timestamp 4 days ago

You know how the Gulf Stream (AMOC, for the climate nerd set) keeps Europe habitable?

The latest tipping points paper is making the rounds for good reason. AMOC collapses past 2100 in all projections https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adfa3b

Good @TheEconomist take https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/08/14/the-shutdown-of-ocean-currents-could-freeze-europe?giftId=b5992cb2-4327-4199-9ac4-88c22f7fbd10&utm_campaign=gifted_article [gift link]

#climate #amoc #tippingpoints #europe #eu

Figure 1. (upper) Ensemble means of the AMOC strength and (below) total ocean heat transport at 26°N in the model simulations in which the northern AMOC shuts down. The letters are ordered from top to bottom to correspond to lines with decreasing values in year 2300/2500. The short cyan line shows the observed (yet insignificant) trend of the RAPID observations [21, 22] for 2005–2023 (upper) and 2005–2020 [23] (below).
Figure 1. (upper) Ensemble means of the AMOC strength and (below) total ocean heat transport at 26°N in the model simulations in which the northern AMOC shuts down. The letters are ordered from top to bottom to correspond to lines with decreasing values in year 2300/2500. The short cyan line shows the observed (yet insignificant) trend of the RAPID observations [21, 22] for 2005–2023 (upper) and 2005–2020 [23] (below).
Figure 1. (upper) Ensemble means of the AMOC strength and (below) total ocean heat transport at 26°N in the model simulations in which the northern AMOC shuts down. The letters are ordered from top to bottom to correspond to lines with decreasing values in year 2300/2500. The short cyan line shows the observed (yet insignificant) trend of the RAPID observations [21, 22] for 2005–2023 (upper) and 2005–2020 [23] (below).
Gernot Wagner
@gwagner@fediscience.org  ·  activity timestamp 4 days ago

You know how the Gulf Stream (AMOC, for the climate nerd set) keeps Europe habitable?

The latest tipping points paper is making the rounds for good reason. AMOC collapses past 2100 in all projections https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adfa3b

Good @TheEconomist take https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/08/14/the-shutdown-of-ocean-currents-could-freeze-europe?giftId=b5992cb2-4327-4199-9ac4-88c22f7fbd10&utm_campaign=gifted_article [gift link]

#climate #amoc #tippingpoints #europe #eu

Figure 1. (upper) Ensemble means of the AMOC strength and (below) total ocean heat transport at 26°N in the model simulations in which the northern AMOC shuts down. The letters are ordered from top to bottom to correspond to lines with decreasing values in year 2300/2500. The short cyan line shows the observed (yet insignificant) trend of the RAPID observations [21, 22] for 2005–2023 (upper) and 2005–2020 [23] (below).
Figure 1. (upper) Ensemble means of the AMOC strength and (below) total ocean heat transport at 26°N in the model simulations in which the northern AMOC shuts down. The letters are ordered from top to bottom to correspond to lines with decreasing values in year 2300/2500. The short cyan line shows the observed (yet insignificant) trend of the RAPID observations [21, 22] for 2005–2023 (upper) and 2005–2020 [23] (below).
Figure 1. (upper) Ensemble means of the AMOC strength and (below) total ocean heat transport at 26°N in the model simulations in which the northern AMOC shuts down. The letters are ordered from top to bottom to correspond to lines with decreasing values in year 2300/2500. The short cyan line shows the observed (yet insignificant) trend of the RAPID observations [21, 22] for 2005–2023 (upper) and 2005–2020 [23] (below).
Parents For Future :verified:
@parents4future@climatejustice.global  ·  activity timestamp 5 days ago

Rahmstorf, August 28th, 2025: "I was shocked when I first saw these results from standard climate models used in IPCC reports: for high emissions, the Atlantic overturning circulation #AMOC shuts down in all 9 models that ran past 2100, and is well on the way to shutdown by 2100.

Our paper on that is out today.🧵

Only a few models have continued intermediate or low emission scenarios beyond the year 2100. In some of them the #AMOC shuts down as well. So even for low emissions (compatible with the Paris agreement) we are not safe. But the risk is much smaller.

We estimate the probability of shutdown as 70% for high emissions and 25% for low emissions based on the CMIP6 models.

These are rough estimates, but main point is: this is a risk that I used to consider <10%, and given the devastating impacts lasting many centuries we really want this to be <1%.

➡ Our paper is open access here: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adfa3b

Are you interested in the #AMOC?
➡ My popular article in Oceanography magazine: https://tos.org/oceanography/article/is-the-atlantic-overturning-circulation-approaching-a-tipping-point

➡ My recent talk on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHNNW8c_FaA

" - Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf @rahmstorf on Bluesky (source: threads https://bsky.app/profile/rahmstorf.bsky.social/post/3lxhvreyjms2u and https://bsky.app/profile/rahmstorf.bsky.social/post/3lxhyrlmfgs2u )

Diagramm mit dem Titel „Collapsing CMIP6 models“. Die x-Achse zeigt die Zeit von 1850 bis 2500, die y-Achse die Stromfunktion bei 26°N in Sverdrups (Sv) von 0 bis 25. Mehrere Linien stellen verschiedene Emissionsszenarien dar. Eine blaue Linie zeigt den beobachteten Trend, eine rote Linie markiert die Szenarien „hohe Emissionen: 9 von 9!“, und eine grüne Linie steht für „mittlere Emissionen“. Das Diagramm zeigt, dass bei hohen Emissionen die Stromfunktion bis etwa 2100 stark einbricht, während bei mittleren und niedrigen Emissionen der Rückgang weniger ausgeprägt ist.
Diagramm mit dem Titel „Collapsing CMIP6 models“. Die x-Achse zeigt die Zeit von 1850 bis 2500, die y-Achse die Stromfunktion bei 26°N in Sverdrups (Sv) von 0 bis 25. Mehrere Linien stellen verschiedene Emissionsszenarien dar. Eine blaue Linie zeigt den beobachteten Trend, eine rote Linie markiert die Szenarien „hohe Emissionen: 9 von 9!“, und eine grüne Linie steht für „mittlere Emissionen“. Das Diagramm zeigt, dass bei hohen Emissionen die Stromfunktion bis etwa 2100 stark einbricht, während bei mittleren und niedrigen Emissionen der Rückgang weniger ausgeprägt ist.
Diagramm mit dem Titel „Collapsing CMIP6 models“. Die x-Achse zeigt die Zeit von 1850 bis 2500, die y-Achse die Stromfunktion bei 26°N in Sverdrups (Sv) von 0 bis 25. Mehrere Linien stellen verschiedene Emissionsszenarien dar. Eine blaue Linie zeigt den beobachteten Trend, eine rote Linie markiert die Szenarien „hohe Emissionen: 9 von 9!“, und eine grüne Linie steht für „mittlere Emissionen“. Das Diagramm zeigt, dass bei hohen Emissionen die Stromfunktion bis etwa 2100 stark einbricht, während bei mittleren und niedrigen Emissionen der Rückgang weniger ausgeprägt ist.
PIK_climate
@PIK_climate@wisskomm.social  ·  activity timestamp 5 days ago

"We found that the tipping point where the shutdown becomes inevitable is probably in the next 10 to 20 years or so. That is quite a shocking finding and why we have to act really fast in cutting down emissions,” says PIK scientist @rahmstorf in The Guardian's article on a new #AMOC study: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/aug/28/collapse-critical-atlantic-current-amoc-no-longer-low-likelihood-study
PIK_climate
@PIK_climate@wisskomm.social  ·  activity timestamp 5 days ago

"We found that the tipping point where the shutdown becomes inevitable is probably in the next 10 to 20 years or so. That is quite a shocking finding and why we have to act really fast in cutting down emissions,” says PIK scientist @rahmstorf in The Guardian's article on a new #AMOC study: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/aug/28/collapse-critical-atlantic-current-amoc-no-longer-low-likelihood-study
Parents For Future :verified:
@parents4future@climatejustice.global  ·  activity timestamp 5 days ago

Rahmstorf, August 28th, 2025: "I was shocked when I first saw these results from standard climate models used in IPCC reports: for high emissions, the Atlantic overturning circulation #AMOC shuts down in all 9 models that ran past 2100, and is well on the way to shutdown by 2100.

Our paper on that is out today.🧵

Only a few models have continued intermediate or low emission scenarios beyond the year 2100. In some of them the #AMOC shuts down as well. So even for low emissions (compatible with the Paris agreement) we are not safe. But the risk is much smaller.

We estimate the probability of shutdown as 70% for high emissions and 25% for low emissions based on the CMIP6 models.

These are rough estimates, but main point is: this is a risk that I used to consider <10%, and given the devastating impacts lasting many centuries we really want this to be <1%.

➡ Our paper is open access here: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adfa3b

Are you interested in the #AMOC?
➡ My popular article in Oceanography magazine: https://tos.org/oceanography/article/is-the-atlantic-overturning-circulation-approaching-a-tipping-point

➡ My recent talk on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHNNW8c_FaA

" - Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf @rahmstorf on Bluesky (source: threads https://bsky.app/profile/rahmstorf.bsky.social/post/3lxhvreyjms2u and https://bsky.app/profile/rahmstorf.bsky.social/post/3lxhyrlmfgs2u )

Diagramm mit dem Titel „Collapsing CMIP6 models“. Die x-Achse zeigt die Zeit von 1850 bis 2500, die y-Achse die Stromfunktion bei 26°N in Sverdrups (Sv) von 0 bis 25. Mehrere Linien stellen verschiedene Emissionsszenarien dar. Eine blaue Linie zeigt den beobachteten Trend, eine rote Linie markiert die Szenarien „hohe Emissionen: 9 von 9!“, und eine grüne Linie steht für „mittlere Emissionen“. Das Diagramm zeigt, dass bei hohen Emissionen die Stromfunktion bis etwa 2100 stark einbricht, während bei mittleren und niedrigen Emissionen der Rückgang weniger ausgeprägt ist.
Diagramm mit dem Titel „Collapsing CMIP6 models“. Die x-Achse zeigt die Zeit von 1850 bis 2500, die y-Achse die Stromfunktion bei 26°N in Sverdrups (Sv) von 0 bis 25. Mehrere Linien stellen verschiedene Emissionsszenarien dar. Eine blaue Linie zeigt den beobachteten Trend, eine rote Linie markiert die Szenarien „hohe Emissionen: 9 von 9!“, und eine grüne Linie steht für „mittlere Emissionen“. Das Diagramm zeigt, dass bei hohen Emissionen die Stromfunktion bis etwa 2100 stark einbricht, während bei mittleren und niedrigen Emissionen der Rückgang weniger ausgeprägt ist.
Diagramm mit dem Titel „Collapsing CMIP6 models“. Die x-Achse zeigt die Zeit von 1850 bis 2500, die y-Achse die Stromfunktion bei 26°N in Sverdrups (Sv) von 0 bis 25. Mehrere Linien stellen verschiedene Emissionsszenarien dar. Eine blaue Linie zeigt den beobachteten Trend, eine rote Linie markiert die Szenarien „hohe Emissionen: 9 von 9!“, und eine grüne Linie steht für „mittlere Emissionen“. Das Diagramm zeigt, dass bei hohen Emissionen die Stromfunktion bis etwa 2100 stark einbricht, während bei mittleren und niedrigen Emissionen der Rückgang weniger ausgeprägt ist.
Marvin
Marvin boosted
Bart Verheggen
@BartVerheggen@social.edu.nl  ·  activity timestamp 6 days ago

De meeste klimaatprojecties stoppen in 2100. Een nieuwe studie kijkt wat er met de Atlantische oceaanstroming #AMOC gebeurd in modelruns die tot 2300 doorlopen. De AMOC blijkt dan vaak stil te vallen, zeker in scenario's met een hoge CO2-uitstoot.
https://www.knmi.nl/over-het-knmi/nieuws/golfstroom-amoc-kantelpunt-tipping-point/
@knmi #klimaatbericht

Marvin
Marvin boosted
PIK_climate
@PIK_climate@wisskomm.social  ·  activity timestamp 6 days ago

Possible #AMOC shutdown after 2100 in high-emission future: new study with PIK scientist @rahmstorf finds that this would cut the ocean’s northward heat supply, causing summer drying & winter extremes in NW Europe + shifts in tropical rainfall belts.
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/possible-north-atlantic-overturning-circulation-shutdown-after-2100-in-high-emission-future/pik_news_view
Bart Verheggen
@BartVerheggen@social.edu.nl  ·  activity timestamp 6 days ago

De meeste klimaatprojecties stoppen in 2100. Een nieuwe studie kijkt wat er met de Atlantische oceaanstroming #AMOC gebeurd in modelruns die tot 2300 doorlopen. De AMOC blijkt dan vaak stil te vallen, zeker in scenario's met een hoge CO2-uitstoot.
https://www.knmi.nl/over-het-knmi/nieuws/golfstroom-amoc-kantelpunt-tipping-point/
@knmi #klimaatbericht
Ivi Choc
@IviChoc@mastodon.online  ·  activity timestamp 6 days ago
#FYI#US #USA#AmericanResiliency#EmilySchoerning #resilience#TimesOfChange#AMOC

According to latest data the AMOC slowdown/shutdown is expected till 2050 with ~59% probability.
I expect that much earlier. 10 years are really optimistic methinks. Let's see, what the effects will look like.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmMwgpDDBH0

#ClimateScience #climatechange#ClimateEmergency#ClimateCrisis#ClimateBreakdown#ClimateDisruption#globalWarming#globalHeating#ExtremeWeather#EcosystemCollapse#polycrisis
Bart Verheggen
@BartVerheggen@social.edu.nl  ·  activity timestamp 6 days ago

A different study, published earlier this week, found that the #AMOC starts becoming unstable around the year 2060 in most climate models, based on a specifically developed indicator.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025JC022651

From the moment of becoming unstable (i.e. having reached the tipping point), it still takes 50 to 100 years before the AMOC has fully collapsed.

Seems like a good idea to prevent that from happening.
Bart Verheggen
@BartVerheggen@social.edu.nl  ·  activity timestamp 6 days ago

Most climate model simulations don't go beyond 2100. But in all high emission projections that were run through 2300, the Atlantic overturning circulation (AMOC) was found to collapse. Of the low emission projections (in line with the Paris Agreement), still a quarter was found to eventually lead to a collapsed #AMOC.
AMOC collapse in climate models is preceded by deep convection (i.e. vertical mixing of water) in the North Atlantic stopping, usually mid-21st century.
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adfa3b
PIK_climate
@PIK_climate@wisskomm.social  ·  activity timestamp 6 days ago

Possible #AMOC shutdown after 2100 in high-emission future: new study with PIK scientist @rahmstorf finds that this would cut the ocean’s northward heat supply, causing summer drying & winter extremes in NW Europe + shifts in tropical rainfall belts.
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/possible-north-atlantic-overturning-circulation-shutdown-after-2100-in-high-emission-future/pik_news_view
Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf
@rahmstorf@fediscience.org  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago

Fascinating and important for our future: the European Space Agency ESA plans to monitor changes in the Atlantic Ocean Circulation #AMOC from satellite with a new gravity mission.
That is important since the AMOC may be approaching a #tippingpoint.

https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/FutureEO/New_ESA_gravity_mission_to_detect_weakening_ocean_conveyor
Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf
@rahmstorf@fediscience.org  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago

Fascinating and important for our future: the European Space Agency ESA plans to monitor changes in the Atlantic Ocean Circulation #AMOC from satellite with a new gravity mission.
That is important since the AMOC may be approaching a #tippingpoint.

https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/FutureEO/New_ESA_gravity_mission_to_detect_weakening_ocean_conveyor