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At a very conservative (for solar) 20% growth rate this means that, by 2030, solar will have added 200TWh capacity to the combined African grid and will be adding 1/5 of Africa's current coal generation capacity annually. Even without much storage (which there will be) this will make a massive difference to African homes and businesses.
All the other clean options will still be getting out of the gate by then.
This is the _start_ of the growth story not the end.
Solar & then Solar + Storage is the only technology that can drive just & clean access to electricity in the Global South. All other solutions require centralised control, large capital outlays & long lead times.
Solar is here now, it is cheap, it can be deployed locally. It is easy and fast to buy & deploy at any scale.
We now have the means to build & ship them at scale (Thank you China). Potentially making all new generation clean & available to all.
I expect Africa's demand to grow pretty much in line with supply.
Probably the only "transition" we'll see, rather than "addition" is from expensive diesel generators to solar and batteries (probably with diesel backups kept "just in case").
& an invisible one of human labour -> pumps.
& maybe of firewood to electric rings (but that will probably initially be to kerosene stoves TBH).
Additive when it is pulling people up from the bottom is not a bad thing.
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