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Bread and Circuses
@breadandcircuses@climatejustice.social  ·  activity timestamp 7 months ago

🧵 3/4

Is the Earth warming faster now than in decades past?

2023 and 2024 were by far the two hottest years ever experienced in human history. And 21 of the last 22 months have seen warming rise above the UN’s fabled 1.5°C target.

That was attributed mainly to the 2023-2024 El Niño, when warmer ocean surfaces periodically raise temperatures. But the El Niño is gone now, and so we should see the heat receding.

Except it’s not.

As you can see in the chart below, temperatures in 2025 are holding mostly steady so far with the record highs of 2024, even though they shouldn’t be, according to the IPCC.

Here is what Hansen and his colleagues have predicted…
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Global temperature for 2025 should decline little, if at all, from the record 2024 level. Absence of a large temperature decline after the huge El Nino-spurred temperature increase in 2023-24 will provide further confirmation that IPCC’s best estimates for climate sensitivity and aerosol climate forcing were both underestimates. Specifically, 2025 global temperature should remain near or above +1.5C relative to 1880-1920.
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SEE ➡️ https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2025/2025GlobalTemperature.15April2025.pdf

We’ll find out if they are right.

#Science #Climate #ClimateChange #Capitalism #BusinessAsUsual

Line graph shows daily surface global air temperature for every year from 1991 through 2025. The dark red line for 2025 is tracking closely so far with the orange line of record highs in 2024.
Line graph shows daily surface global air temperature for every year from 1991 through 2025. The dark red line for 2025 is tracking closely so far with the orange line of record highs in 2024.
Line graph shows daily surface global air temperature for every year from 1991 through 2025. The dark red line for 2025 is tracking closely so far with the orange line of record highs in 2024.
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