From WDBJ7 (VA) Weather on FB: Hurricane Melissa is now a Category 4 hurricane, and is expected to bring potentially catastrophic conditions to the majority of Jamaica. This will include devastating winds/storm surge and rainfall that could approach 3 feet of rain (yes, FEET) to parts of the island.
Please keep the citizens of Jamaica in your thoughts, as this could be a mass casualty event by the time all is said and done this week.
From WDBJ7 (VA) Weather on FB: Hurricane Melissa is now a Category 4 hurricane, and is expected to bring potentially catastrophic conditions to the majority of Jamaica. This will include devastating winds/storm surge and rainfall that could approach 3 feet of rain (yes, FEET) to parts of the island.
Please keep the citizens of Jamaica in your thoughts, as this could be a mass casualty event by the time all is said and done this week.
Jamaica, in particular, will likely suffer catastrophic impacts from now rapidly-intensifying (but slow-moving) Hurricane #Melissa. A *Category 5* landfall now appears to be the most likely outcome, & 30-40+ inches of *additional* rain in mountains will lead to extreme flooding.
While only Jamaica appears to be at risk of a direct strike from a Cat 4/5 storm, Haiti and Dominican Rep. have already been receiving torrential rainfall from #Melissa & this will continue for days to come. Haiti in particular is highly vulnerable to flash flood/landslides.
This evening's update from the U.S. National Hurricane Center on #Melissa is ominous, and explicitly mentions: "catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding...extensive infrastructural damage...and potentially prolonged isolation of communities" in both Jamaica & Haiti.
Unfortunately, #Melissa has high potential to have devastating effects in Jamaica (even greater than Gilbert in 1988) despite the island's extensive hurricane experience. This one's looking like a worst-case scenario in terms of strength, duration, and "angle of approach."
While only Jamaica appears to be at risk of a direct strike from a Cat 4/5 storm, Haiti and Dominican Rep. have already been receiving torrential rainfall from #Melissa & this will continue for days to come. Haiti in particular is highly vulnerable to flash flood/landslides.
This will not only be hurricane with top-of-scale intensity, but will also be slow-moving so wind/rain will linger for *days* in affected areas. Its slow movement will further amplify already extreme flood threat, particularly in mountainous parts of Jamaica & Haiti. #Melissa
Unfortunately, #Melissa has high potential to have devastating effects in Jamaica (even greater than Gilbert in 1988) despite the island's extensive hurricane experience. This one's looking like a worst-case scenario in terms of strength, duration, and "angle of approach."
Jamaica, in particular, will likely suffer catastrophic impacts from now rapidly-intensifying (but slow-moving) Hurricane #Melissa. A *Category 5* landfall now appears to be the most likely outcome, & 30-40+ inches of *additional* rain in mountains will lead to extreme flooding.
This will not only be hurricane with top-of-scale intensity, but will also be slow-moving so wind/rain will linger for *days* in affected areas. Its slow movement will further amplify already extreme flood threat, particularly in mountainous parts of Jamaica & Haiti. #Melissa
Jamaica, in particular, will likely suffer catastrophic impacts from now rapidly-intensifying (but slow-moving) Hurricane #Melissa. A *Category 5* landfall now appears to be the most likely outcome, & 30-40+ inches of *additional* rain in mountains will lead to extreme flooding.
Latest model projections regarding #Melissa are painting an increasingly dire scenario for Jamaica and possibly western Hispaniola (esp. Haiti) in terms of widespread risk of catastrophic flooding from exceptional rainfall amounts--possibly exceeding 3-4 feet (30-40+ inches).
While there is unfortunately growing confidence in extreme flood threat stemming from potential for historic rainfall in mountainous island terrain, there is also possibility of high-end major hurricane winds for very long duration (but this is more uncertain). #Melissa
This unfortunately has ingredients for potential catastrophe: 1) a high-end physical hazard (extreme/record rainfall & possibly destructive winds), 2) a large population exposed (~15 million+), & 3) high exposure (due to poverty, mountainous terrain, & land degradation). #Melissa
Latest model projections regarding #Melissa are painting an increasingly dire scenario for Jamaica and possibly western Hispaniola (esp. Haiti) in terms of widespread risk of catastrophic flooding from exceptional rainfall amounts--possibly exceeding 3-4 feet (30-40+ inches).