Discussion
A thought that occurred to me early in reading this take-down of NASA's Orion capsule is that NASA is now 67 years old, and we shaved apes are *terrible* at building institutions that function for more than an average human life expectancy, on the order of 70-80 years.
Even before Trump, NASA was probably likely to wither and die before 2050. Now I think it'll be lucky it make it to 2030.
https://spacey.space/@nyrath/115485574021179202
@cstross for sure, the probability at founding that any institution will survive for 80 years are pretty slim
but I wonder if the probability of a 67 years old institution to survive 80 more years aren't significantly higher: they should have already gone through at least a couple of generational changes and other events that cause the early failure of most institutions.
We do have a big handful of examples of institutions that lasted for centuries, or even millennia (not unchanged, and in many cases their current state wouldn't be recognized by the people from the time of their founding, but they are still there)
@cstross After Challenger exploded they put Dan Quayle in charge, but the real issue was Boomers took over. Neil Armstrong was 38 when he landed on the moon: in 1969 the oldest Boomer was 23.
FDR's New Deal and the WWII veterans did amazing things, which the Boomers inherited and took credit for. The WHO repurposed WWII supply chains in 1948 and declared war on smallpox 1958. Since Boomers took that over they have eliminated zero diseases.
The Baby Boom has collected value, not created it.
@landley @cstross
Got close to Polio.
Who eliminated Rinderpest? (Not my area either way).
We are close to eliminating cervical cancer of the sorts caused by human papilloma viruses and genital warts as a side effect.
Each reversal in those is caused by religious nuts. (And Americans) We are still making progress on the long job of eliminating that.
@landley @cstross I'm assuming by boomers you mean the first wave of baby boomers, the ones born before 1954, the ones that could get drafted. The ones that did all the cultural revolutions, the ones that marched for peace, the ones that all voted for Reagan once they couldn't get drafted, the ones getting fewer and fewer every day. There's a lot of later boomers who had nothing to do with what you say they did. The first wave clogged the jobs ahead of us for 40 years.
@cstross
If it does, of will be entirely and only because of a) systematic underfunding vs. the benefit it delivered to society, industry, and the country since at least the early 90s, and b) repeated ridiculous presidential priority switches that have nothing to do with what would be useful. Neither of those is a NASA issue as such.
@dymaxion I think you discount (c) a regime motivated by actual malicious intent towards the United States of America, with a side-order of graft and corruption (I'm thinking of Project 2025 and Donald Trump here).
Well, I used to think that, rather cheerfully and absent-mindedly, about things like the Monarchy and the Church of Rome and others. Then one day while I was getting on a bit, there was a new Pope suddenly, and it sort of reframes your perspective.
There's 'function for n period' and then there's 'exist for n period' and the latter seems to be a superclass with other members.
@cstross I hope that NASA can survive as a government agency longer than 2030. I think that NASA is the most popular agency of the U.S. government with the public. The Orion spacecraft and Space Launch System rocket may not have a long future but NASA does many other things, including Earth Observation and planetary science.
@EricFielding Your baseline assumption is that the US government itself survives longer than 2030. Until November 2024 that was a very solid bet: now it's much less certain. (Whether you'll still have a democracy after November 2026 is now in question.)
I predicted (guessed!) in 2005 that civilization-as-we-know-it would collapse by 2030, and unfortunately I may be right. I was thinking that #ClimateChange, peak oil, and democratic decay would do us in. We found more oil, but that turned out to be a bad thing.
"NASA is now 67 years old, and we shaved apes are *terrible* at building institutions that function for more than an average human life expectancy, on the order of 70-80 years."
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