Interesting perspectives as always!  Mastodon's new service offerings are also relevant here; it could be a good path to getting institutions to move to fedi - and fits in well with the decentralization approach.
That said, one other thing that's changed since 2022 is that Mastodon plays a less-central role in fedi, a dynamic that I think is likely to accelerate over the next year.  A few examples:
- Bonfire's work on Open Science, for example, is especially relevant to scientists
- GoToSocial is now a great choice for people looking to run small sites
- Ghost and Wordpress have solid intergrations
- the "Threadiverse" has link aggregators like Piefed and forums like NodeBB
- Bandwagon and Mirlo are music-oriented options
-  Flipboard's integration provides access to a lot more media sites
And the list goes on ... so I think that if there's another migration it will be to the fediverse as a whole (rather than primarily Mastodon).
On the other hand, the emergence of community-focused Bluesky-compatible platforms like Blacksky highlights that Mastodon and the fediverse aren't the only possible destinations for a Bluesky migration.  Mastodon's whiteness was a huge problem in 2022, and while Bluesky PBC itself is very anti-Black, Blacksky is a really important counterweight.  Mastodon's challenges haven't gone away on this front; the way Blacksky continues to be erased in discussions of decentralization  in the ATmosphere is a great example. I think there's general awareness that this is an issue that needs to be addressed -- @julian ran a good session on this at a FediForum -- but it's still an open question to me whether people here will collectively prioritize this enough to make progress.
At any rate, interesting times ... it'll be interesting to see how it plays out!
@hildabast