2 more polls out, Labour and the Nats are neck and neck, and NatACT First have a solid lead on LabGreens TPM. Opportunity are back above 5% in both;
(1/?)
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Lastly, in my brainstorm on reasons why NatACT First haven't tanked in the polls after 3 years of persistently incompetent, corrupt and anti-social governing;
* Social media influence ops have their thumb on the scale so hard it's boosting NatAct First's vote and suppressing that of Labour, Greens and TPM (maybe even Opportunity)
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I'm thinking about the paper I posted a link to recently about epistemic fragmentation. We don't know what kind of political messaging other kiwis are seeing on DataFarming platforms - whether 'content' or ads - and in what combinations. But it's logical that for those who get a majority of our information about electoral politics from recommendation algorithms, what they see there has a huge influence on the shapes of political reality in their mind.
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Even if we got everyone in Aotearoa off the DataFarms and into community-controlled social networks like the fediverse, we still wouldn't know what combination of political messages anyone else is seeing. Or how much it reflects reality, rather than corporatist propaganda or #MOLE vomit.
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I can think of a number of explanations for this;
* Half the country really like the Beyond Thunderdome style of government and want to keep NatACT First
* Labour's persistently visionless, gutless, policy vacuum is depressing not only their vote, but that of any party perceived as aligned with them
* So many people are still undecided, and won't give a preference, skewing the numbers. I really wish poll results would incline the percentage of "don't know" or "none of the above"
(2/?)