Text document at benjaminmoll.com. “Bet on Explosive AI-Driven Growth A bet on near-term explosive AI-driven growth: whether U.S. real GDP per capita will grow by at least 15% within a single year (measured relative to prior peak) by the end of 2033. Agreed on X, 15–16 August 2026. This document summarizes the agreed terms. 1. Parties and stakes Fast-growth side (wins if the growth condition in Section 2 is met): - William MacAskill https://www.williammacaskill.com/ — $10,000 - Samuel Albanie https://samuelalbanie.com/ — $25,000 - Tom Cohen https://x.com/tomcohen — $25,000 - Total: $60,000 No-fast-growth side (wins otherwise): - Benjamin Moll http://benjaminmoll.com/ — $40,000 - Andrew Ho https://andrewho.xyz/ — $200,000 - Total: $240,000 Odds: 4:1 — every $1 staked by the fast-growth side is matched by $4 from the no-fast-growth side. Implied probability of the fast-growth scenario: 20%.”