Discussion
Europe had decided to help space start ups, likely thinking they can help create alternatives to space X.
They can't. No one can, except China, through enormous non market subsidies.
The secret sauce is to have a huge market to serve, and there isn't one. SpaceX are their own market, and should anyone try to add their own constellation, we can kiss goodbye to LEO.
And I cannot stress enough that satellite internet is a garbage solution compared to fibre...
@iinavpov Too late on the "should anyone else try to add …" front: Amazon's building a cluster, China's building a cluster, ESA and Russia are also talking about low orbit comsat clusters.
There are places where fibre *can't* work—on planes and ships—but the demand for Starlink is mostly driven by market inefficiencies and regulatory failures in the USA.
@cstross
I know these constellations are planned, and I think LEO is toast should they go ahead (though the EU one is much smaller, higher orbit).
On Starlink, yes, precisely, and that's not a guarantee for a radiant future. Definitely not given the upkeep cost.
But if the other constellations go up, it will be a race between cascading failures in orbit or spaceX going bankrupt from competition actually existing.
I don't like this timeline...
@iinavpov The difference between Space Race 2.0 (the en-commercialing) and the AI/data centre bubble is that when the bust comes, one bubble will leave useful infrastructure behind (and it ain't going to be AI/data centres). A few years out while a Kessler cascade sweeps LEO clear won't do much to prevent deep space missions and direct-ascent launches to GEO but it won't do Musk or Bezos any favours.
Install bonfire.cafe
Get the full app experience
