@knud I don't know what your metrics and projections are based off of, and it's irrelevant. You're looking at it, perhaps from the POV of the people using the energy. I'm thinking about the people who are being exploited to get the raw material for said energy, the ecosystems they're coming from, and the actual capacity of the planet. Your orientation requires more, mine less.
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@dnkboston no, that’s not where I’m coming from. Unavailability, intermittency.
When oil becomes unprofitable it becomes less extracted. As it becomes less profitable the cost of capital heads sharply up. As do all of oil’s supply chain dependents, including metals, many of which are independently heading along similar trajectories https://mastodon.social/@urlyman/111374066310651684
@urlyman I keep thinking about something Charles Mann wrote a decade ago. There's never been Peak Oil, thanks to the determination of governments and oil companies to keep it flowing, which fostered "innovative" tech to do so.
I don't think oil will become difficult enough to extract in my lifetime.
@dnkboston
I've been listening to some talks on the subject and talking to some experts, and there are definite signs that we have peaked and that oil and gas will become more and more expensive, with all the implications that has for food, industry, etc.
@gerrymcgovern Because of Hormuz? Or even without that? @urlyman @knud
@dnkboston perhaps accelerated by (too hard to see) but for sure without it anyway.
The energy return on investment (EROI) of a barrel of oil around 1940 was 1:100. i.e. You got 100 barrels out for every 1 you invest in extraction. Today (pre 28 Feb), the global average is about 1:15. Joseph Tainter thinks that it becomes unsustainable at about 1:10 because of the upfront costs of exploration and field development.
That said, the field to field EROI variance is large. So…
@urlyman @dnkboston @gerrymcgovern @knud maybe you know this already but renewables have a higher EROEI when you look at the point of use instead of the point of extraction (for fossil fuels - renewables obvs don’t have a point of extraction)! https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-024-01518-6
@Brendanjones
How do you mean "renewables obvs don’t have a point of extraction"?
@gerrymcgovern I'm guessing @Brendanjones means that if you use solar or wind, the "extraction" on the panels or via turbines is a different kettle of fish than getting oil or coal. @urlyman @knud
@dnkboston @gerrymcgovern @urlyman @knud Indeed. For renewables there’s no fuel extracted for which you can measure eroi. Their fuel is the sun and the wind, which we didn’t create, so eroi is meaningless. For renewables you can only measure eroi at point of use or at the use phase.
Using the point of extraction eroi for fossil fuels vs point of use eroi for renewables is highly misleading, and playing into the narrative of the necessity of ff’s when ff’s are actually massively inefficient.
@Brendanjones
Extraction occurs in other ways. Wind turbines can need 120,000 tons of steel, 5,000 tons of nickel, 1,500 tons of copper, and nearly 300 tons of rare earth elements per GW of installed capacity.
But the real damage is in the mining waste. To get 1,500 of copper you can cause over 800,000 of toxic mining waste. To get 300 tons of rare earths, can cause about 600,000 ton of often radioactive waste. Wind and solar have intense upfront metal needs.
@gerrymcgovern @dnkboston @urlyman @knud Yes indeed, no disagreement here that eroi shouldn’t be the only measure looked at when comparing energy sources. I was simply making a comment about the narrative of the eroi of oil vs renewables, which is often used as an argument that oil is superior because of its energy density. Yes it’s more energy dense, but that doesn’t translate into more energy once it’s been converted to electricity, because the conversion process is so inefficient.
@Brendanjones
Interesting. How does energy 'efficiency' of oil compare to solar and wind?
Another thing someone explained to me recently. The majority of the toxicity of fossil fuels occurs at combustion, whereas wind and solar do most of their damage in the mining and consequent waste. We rarely account for the toxic waste and its environmental damage in calculating energy impacts. We are fast approaching mining a Mt Everest of waste every year.
@gerrymcgovern @Brendanjones @dnkboston @knud
Tadeusz Patzek characterises the fossil-fuelled era as wasting 60 to 70% of energy input before it even makes it to direct primary power output.
My understanding is that electricity is close to 100% efficient when generation is proximate to end use but because most generation is large scale and distant from end use *a lot* gets lost in distribution. (Which is itself a stupidly fragile and inefficient way to go about electrifying)…
@gerrymcgovern @Brendanjones @dnkboston @knud
…The rule of thumb I’ve seen is that the overall efficiency of electrification is expected to reduce like-for-like demand by 40%.
But the narrative misses the point that the infrastructure doesn’t get built without the extant fossil fuel infrastructure to build it.
People like Louis Arnoux make more sense to me in that they make a case for hyperlocal small-scale generation with tech that has substantially less advanced industrial dependencies
@gerrymcgovern @Brendanjones @dnkboston @knud
…Arnoux is rather protective of the details but the principles of what he says seem right to me.
Which I would sum up as build for the intermittency of the downslope, not the expectations of an upslope (or even a plateau) that won’t be there
