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The smart Nats are probably relieved that the coalition is starting to poll under 50%. As it means ACT and Winston First can't improve their own standing in the coalition with the early election gambit, without risking throwing themselves into the Opposition benches.
I'm guessing the only reason CLuxon retained the leadership is that most Nat MPs are not smart enough to do that kind of political calculus. But if the polls continue on their current trajectory, CLuxon's days are numbered.
(3/?)
But despite towing the party line in public, the smart ones among the Nats must know that the only thing keeping their polling from being much worse is the equivalent uselessness of Labour under Hipkins. And quite frankly, both parties are benefiting from the Greens and TPM being mostly MIA, thanks to their own messy internal politics. Although Winston First is probably doing the best out of all this.
(2/?)
The smart Nats are probably relieved that the coalition is starting to poll under 50%. As it means ACT and Winston First can't improve their own standing in the coalition with the early election gambit, without risking throwing themselves into the Opposition benches.
I'm guessing the only reason CLuxon retained the leadership is that most Nat MPs are not smart enough to do that kind of political calculus. But if the polls continue on their current trajectory, CLuxon's days are numbered.
(3/?)
Now all 3 of the NatACT First parties just have to hope that Labour aren't smart enough to roll Hipkins and tack left. That the Greens aren't smart enough to convince Davidson to stand down and give Teanau Tuiono the co-leadership. That TPM aren't smart enough to tidy up their internal processes and present a united front.
(4/?)
@strypey I personally don't see how that would result in any gains for the Greens. The coalition would simply point to it (uncaring of irony if they even had the self-reflection to recognise it) as evidence that the Greens were an unstable, unserious party because they were changing their co-leader in an election year.
I also don't know anyone who won't vote Green because of Marama Davidson that would change their mind and vote if Teanau Tuiono replaced her. It certainly doesn't feel like there's enough votes in that to change the outcome, put it that way.
Because if any of those first things happened - and especially more than 1 of them - that would tank the Winston First vote, and potentially further erode the Nat vote, and the current regime would be toast.
(5/5)
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