You'll likely be bored with me saying this, but I feel I must just reiterate, after this morning's 'news' that in the last Q/2025 the UK economy 'grew' by 0.1%.
The stagnation of the UK economy is not some unhappy accident but is the direct result of (and indeed policy intention of) the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, who see vanquishing inflation as much more important than maintaining the UK's economic dynamism (such as it is).
1/2
@ChrisMayLA6 the UK exports 85% of the oil it produces because it doesn’t have the refinery capacity to meet its own demands, so it buys more than it exports at higher cost. Oil underpins everything we take for granted. And globally, oil EROI has slid from 1:100 to 1:15 in the past 80 years. It becomes loss making at about 1:10.
No amount of political wishful thinking or strategic shift in monetary policy is going to change material reality or magic up economic dynamism
@urlyman @ChrisMayLA6 reducing oil miles is a good thing, but trade and specialisation should help with the wealth of nations, no?
As we reduce our oil use, we shall spend less buying finished product back, and burning it. That'll be good also.
And as others progress, we shall export less, and that is also good.
@urlyman @ChrisMayLA6 UK refinery capacity has shrunk significantly over recent years, down from 18 in the 1970s to 4 today. The most recent casualties were Grangemouth and Lindley. Seemingly it's not economic to refine here anymore.
While some of that is due to the decline in domestically extracted North Sea oil and gas, at the same time the Gulf states have heavily invested in refining their own crude, so capturing the value added. I suppose we should recognise this as a form of decolonisation.
https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CDP-2025-0235/CDP-2025-0235.pdf
@marjolica and because burning fossil fuels is accelerating the erosion of the basis upon which economies of scale can exist at all, even countries which have a CAPEX head start are just narrowing the window within which any strategic shift that ignores thermodynamic reality can stand up.
Can we muster any new thinking at all?
@ChrisMayLA6 not in the corridors of power, anyway
@urlyman @ChrisMayLA6 @marjolica Seems those haunting the corridors of power sold their souls to oil and coal (and a few others) a long while ago. #neoliberalism
