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David Gerard
David Gerard
@davidgerard@circumstances.run  ·  activity timestamp 21 hours ago

Statements of the form "the AI bubble will crash but the *technology* will remain" are vacuous. Stop making them.

The useful tech is the transformer, which already existed and was useful.

Generative AI brings no new usefulness to the table, even in business terms, without a VC-funded bubble.

The same guys were making the same vacuous statement about bitcoin and blockchain.

No tech from blockchain dates later than 2001. Crypto added nothing.

Whether AI or crypto, it's a dumb statement shallow people make thinking it makes them sound smart.

and if you follow up with "but it's useful to meeeeeeeeee" I'll just block you. Assume I've heard your excuse and it's bad.

I can't think of a single excuse of the "AI is here to stay" form that survives the crash. Here's a catalogue: https://pivot-to-ai.com/2025/07/10/ai-is-here-to-stay-is-it-though-what-do-you-mean-stay/

even "the maths will remain" isn't for sure. ML as a research field has been heavily corrupted by LLM money, down to accepting spinning a roulette wheel in methodology. ML is headed for one doozy of a replication crisis, if they don't just throw out most of the past few years. Start over at 2022, maybe.

AI is a room full of VCs who've gone from wondering who's the bagholder to wondering if they're *all* the bagholders

meanwhile Jensen is driving off in a dumptruck filled with all their actual dollar money, whistling a jaunty tune.

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Martijn Frazer
Martijn Frazer
@Tijn@dosgame.club replied  ·  activity timestamp 4 hours ago

@davidgerard Hard to imagine someone is going to keep a service online if it's not profitable.

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Hex
Hex
@hexmasteen@chaos.social replied  ·  activity timestamp 4 hours ago

@davidgerard To quote @piater:

> If it works, we don't call it AI

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hermit
hermit
@alive@interlace.space replied  ·  activity timestamp 4 hours ago

@davidgerard i do think there's a bit of useful tech from cryptocurrency land later than 2001, there was a bunch of innovation in zero-knowledge proofs that seems like it could be legitimately useful (zk-snarks in 2012, and zk-starks in 2018)

i'm not aware of any real equivalent to that in LLM land, though.

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Sven Slootweg ("still kinky and horny anyway")
Sven Slootweg ("still kinky and horny anyway")
@joepie91@fedi.slightly.tech replied  ·  activity timestamp 5 hours ago

@davidgerard The 'decentralized tech' field of research is still recovering today, a decade later, from the immense damage and funding vacuum caused by the blockchain hype - so I wouldn't expect the ML field to fare any better... though I guess at least the ML field has a longer history of such disasters, what with the "AI winters"

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David Chisnall (*Now with 50% more sarcasm!*)
David Chisnall (*Now with 50% more sarcasm!*)
@david_chisnall@infosec.exchange replied  ·  activity timestamp 9 hours ago

@davidgerard

Part of the problem is that AI is such a meaningless marketing term that you can always find something under that umbrella that is genuinely useful and will stick around. Mozilla’s little translation models are amazing. They run on my phone, are about 60 MiB for each language pair, and can be trained on a single desktop from ethically sourced training data. The same with a bunch of the computer vision models.

And, as with other ML systems, they work really well in setting where the value of a correct answer is significantly higher than the cost of a wrong answer. I wouldn’t use the Mozilla models for translating a contract or a technical reference. I wouldn’t use them for a menu if I had a severe allergic reaction, but I would use them for translating random things as a tourist or getting a rough idea of what a web page says. I wouldn’t use the OCR models and discard the original image, but using them to add a searchable layer to a PDF is great.

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David Gerard
David Gerard
@davidgerard@circumstances.run replied  ·  activity timestamp 6 hours ago

@david_chisnall as I specirfied in the post, this is about the AI bubble and LLMs

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The Grouchybeast
The Grouchybeast
@Grouchybeast@mastodon.social replied  ·  activity timestamp 10 hours ago

@davidgerard I like meeting people who say they find AI useful, because then I can ask them how much they'd personally pay for access to it. The highest I've found so far is £10 per month. The most common answer is 'oh no, I wouldn't *pay* for it'.

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Elias Mårtenson
Elias Mårtenson
@loke@functional.cafe replied  ·  activity timestamp 6 hours ago

@Grouchybeast @davidgerard I saw someone on a chat recently stating that they pay the equivalent of 185 EUR per month for his llms and they consider it cheap.

They're heavily into ai coding.

All I can think of is teach a man to fish etc.

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Kinene
Kinene
@c_merriweather@social.linux.pizza replied  ·  activity timestamp 15 hours ago

@davidgerard Plus all the electronic waste that will be produced by the giant server farms. They will go through hardware fast. The whole thing is bogus.

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Toni Aittoniemi
Toni Aittoniemi
@gimulnautti@mastodon.green replied  ·  activity timestamp 15 hours ago

@davidgerard If anything about AI is here to stay, it’s that it has outed people who don’t give a shit about other people’s intellectual property or rights, who never wanted to treat other people with respect anyway, who don’t give a shit about truthful representation in media, are nazis and a load of other people either incapable or unwilling of realising what in general makes humans great.

For that I am thankful. 🙏

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George B
George B
@gbargoud@masto.nyc replied  ·  activity timestamp 16 hours ago

@davidgerard

A necessary but not sufficient condition for LLMs to be useful is for truth/accuracy not to matter too much in a given context.

This means one of two things: either checking truth/accuracy is easy (some simple code like unit tests) or it doesn't matter at all (spam emails)

For the first scenario, LLMs are kind of almost useful if you have them already set up and someone else is paying the bill.
The second case can be tested into the sun and we'll all be happier.

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draeath
draeath
@draeath@infosec.exchange replied  ·  activity timestamp 17 hours ago

@davidgerard is there a valid argument to be made about any of the hardware built to run these things? Or was that all just scaling problems and not actually anything new? Or not transferrable to other problems?

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Jason Kraus
Jason Kraus
@zbyte64@social.rootaccess.org replied  ·  activity timestamp 13 hours ago

@draeath @davidgerard the hardware has a shelf-life of 3 to 6 years and then it is no longer useful other than to be recycled.

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NATE BALLAH
NATE BALLAH
@ZyzFeathers@mastodon.social replied  ·  activity timestamp 19 hours ago

@davidgerard you make a good point but the other side of it is this: AI today is just the beginning think of it as a thought train that can validate thoughts it has yet to prove it can pontificate or actualize at a groundbreaking level that can replicate human behavior however I have seen hacker threads showing how injecting prompts of commands for powershell and cmd show it can provide new security threats and security advancements that will be like an immune system to the body

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David Gerard
David Gerard
@davidgerard@circumstances.run replied  ·  activity timestamp 18 hours ago

@ZyzFeathers it's always fuckin mastodon.social isn't it

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Joan, but festive 🎅🏼🎄
Joan, but festive 🎅🏼🎄
@clickhere@mastodon.ie replied  ·  activity timestamp 18 hours ago

@davidgerard pnsl

@ZyzFeathers

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TarXZ
TarXZ
@TarXZ@mastodon.social replied  ·  activity timestamp 20 hours ago

@davidgerard They are actually pretty useful to actively harm the earth, avoid copyrights, and waste more of your customers' time until they realise they were actually talking with a slop generator machine.

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Epic Null
Epic Null
@Epic_Null@infosec.exchange replied  ·  activity timestamp 21 hours ago

@davidgerard Personally I think we should make a coordinated effort to erase the tech, as the primary industry that benefits from it is the scam industry.

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David Gerard
David Gerard
@davidgerard@circumstances.run replied  ·  activity timestamp 21 hours ago

@Epic_Null the tech barely exists! it's so stupid! the existence of transformers (which will remain cos they're actually useful and work) does the heavy lifting! LLMs add nothing useful! AAAAAAAAAAAA

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Epic Null
Epic Null
@Epic_Null@infosec.exchange replied  ·  activity timestamp 3 hours ago

@davidgerard I mean... it provides a strong data set that makes impersonating others easier.

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Tubemeister
Tubemeister
@Tubemeister@mstdn.social replied  ·  activity timestamp 21 hours ago

@davidgerard “are we the baggies?” ;-)

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