Post · bonfire.cafe

Post

@sundogplanets@mastodon.social · last month

Reposting for those not bridged to BlueSky, and to add alt-text, because this is important!

Jonathan McDowell @planet4589.bsky.social posted this morning: "The number of active satellites in orbit has now passed the 14000 mark according to my estimates"

A histogram of the number of active satellites in Earth orbit over time, colour-coded by Starlink, other maneuverable payloads, and non-maneuverable payloads. The number steadily increases with about equal fraction maneuverable and non maneuverable, from 1960 until 2000, when there's a small jump in the number of maneuverable payloads. And then in 2019 Starlink starts shooting up and absolutely dominates the overall number. The total number of active satellites follows a hockey-stick shape, where the inflection point is 2019 when Starlink started launching.

ChookMother 🇦🇺🦘

@anne_twain@theblower.au replied · last month

@sundogplanets Hooley Dooley! And I'm thinking we didn't ever get asked whether we actually wanted this?

Debbie Goldsmith 🏳️‍⚧️♾️🇺🇦

@dgoldsmith@mastodon.social replied · last month

@sundogplanets @planet4589.bsky.social Exponential growth? What could possibly go wrong with that?

Oliver Schafeld

@oliver_schafeld@mastodon.online replied · last month

»The CRASH Clock is ticking as satellite congestion in low Earth orbit worsens […] Professor Sam Lawler explained the origin of the acronym in a post on Mastodon: "We needed a metric. I originally wanted to do something like 'Kessler Countdown' or 'Kessler Clock' …«

https://www.theregister.com/2025/12/12/crash_clock_orbit_collision/

Earth's orbit is starting to look like an LA freeway, with more and more satellites being launched each year. If you're worried about collisions and space debris making the area unusable – and you should be – scientists have proposed a new metric to contribute to your anxiety: the CRASH Clock.

The CRASH (Collision Realization And Significant Harm) Clock is a proposed Key Environmental Indicator (KEI) to give an estimate of how long it would take before a catastrophic collision occurs if collision avoidance maneuvers cease or there is a loss of situation awareness.

The clock is currently 2.8 days, which doesn't sound too bad until you consider that in 2018, before the mega-constellation launches got underway (yes, Starlink, we're looking at you), the CRASH Clock was 121 days.

Professor Sam Lawler explained the origin of the acronym in a post on Mastodon: "We needed a metric. I originally wanted to do something like 'Kessler Countdown' or 'Kessler Clock' but this isn't a countdown to Kessler Syndrome, it's just showing how bad things are in orbit, and how quickly they could get worse. So, our name for this metric is... Collision Realization And Significant Harm: the CRASH Clock!" — The Register — Earth's orbit is starting to look like an LA freeway, with more and more satellites being launched each year. If you're worried about collisions and space debris making the area unusable – and you should be – scientists have proposed a new metric to contribute to your anxiety: the CRASH Clock. The CRASH (Collision Realization And Significant Harm) Clock is a proposed Key Environmental Indicator (KEI) to give an estimate of how long it would take before a catastrophic collision occurs if collision avoidance maneuvers cease or there is a loss of situation awareness. The clock is currently 2.8 days, which doesn't sound too bad until you consider that in 2018, before the mega-constellation launches got underway (yes, Starlink, we're looking at you), the CRASH Clock was 121 days. Professor Sam Lawler explained the origin of the acronym in a post on Mastodon: "We needed a metric. I originally wanted to do something like 'Kessler Countdown' or 'Kessler Clock' but this isn't a countdown to Kessler Syndrome, it's just showing how bad things are in orbit, and how quickly they could get worse. So, our name for this metric is... Collision Realization And Significant Harm: the CRASH Clock!" — The Register

Paper proposes a CRASH Clock for satellite collision risk

: It's getting crowded up there

Ray McCarthy

@raymaccarthy@mastodon.ie replied · last month

@sundogplanets @planet4589.bsky.social
All because Mobile vs Fibre and poor regulation.

Almost no-one should need Internet by satellite.

It's an example of how unbridled capitalism & letting individual countries authorise global space use has gone wrong.

Fibre is cheap, lower environmental install and running cost & doesn't wear out.
Can go up gas pipes, water or sewerage, on poles or in a ditch via a fast trenching machine.

Starlink solar vulnerable & not long term economic.

Duncan Blues

@duncan_blues@norden.social replied · last month

@sundogplanets @planet4589.bsky.social
The movie "Wall-E" was much too prophetic. 😒

catsaretheworst

@catscatscats@mastodon.social replied · last month

@sundogplanets @planet4589.bsky.social What if we just stop global warming by sending up so many satellites that we can't see the sun anymore

Ms. Que Banh

@PhoenixSerenity@beige.party replied · last month

@sundogplanets @planet4589.bsky.social That's far too much space junk pollution.

Mark Burton

@markhburton@mstdn.social replied · last month

@sundogplanets @planet4589.bsky.social
Alternative alt text:
"Graph showing what happens when an obscenely rich man's company is left free to wreak irresponsibly dangerous damage.

Lazarou Monkey Terror 🚀💙🌈

@Lazarou@mastodon.social replied · last month

@sundogplanets @planet4589.bsky.social
With all this debris soon to come down it's like there has been a war in LEO....

#Space #Starlink #LEO #KesslerSyndrome

Erika

@Erika@ruhr.social replied · last month

@sundogplanets I thought of you this morning when I opened my window to have a look at the stars. And there was a "moving star"... and another one... and another one. I'd never seen them like pearls in a necklace, but there they were. 2 hours before sunrise, all going eastwards. Terrible.

@planet4589.bsky.social

Inc Hulk 🧪

@IncHulk@mastodon.green replied · last month

@sundogplanets @planet4589.bsky.social Do you know if the betting industry is accepting bets on the date of Kessler syndrome happening?
If they have an option of “before end of the decade”, what odds should you think are a bargain offer?

I never bet, but the concept feels interesting !

Anton

@syvash@mastodon.social replied · last month

@sundogplanets @planet4589.bsky.social waiting for my account to get old enough so
brid.gly lets me do it :D

Tom Hayward

@hattom@mastodon.social replied · last month

@sundogplanets @planet4589.bsky.social

Thanks for posting.
🥲

bonfire.cafe

A space for Bonfire maintainers and contributors to communicate

bonfire.cafe: About · Code of conduct · Privacy · Users · Instances

Bonfire social · 1.0.1-beta.35 no JS en

Automatic federation enabled