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Charlie Stross
@cstross@wandering.shop  ·  activity timestamp 3 days ago

The key take-away is that uncertainty kills businesses ability to make plans for the future. Brexit did this for the UK, and Trump's tariff nonsense is doing *exactly* the same to the USA, only faster (Brexit came after a four-year delay then took more years to reach full impact).

I expect the USA in 2028 to look as if it Brexited itself from the global economy in 2025. (But then add a tech bubble collapsing on top!)
https://bsky.brid.gy/r/https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:agxhun7wf2fm3fdfj6zrm33y/post/3m6eix27zyc2r

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synlogic4242
@synlogic4242@social.vivaldi.net replied  ·  activity timestamp 3 days ago

@cstross and I have no doubt the tariff chaos and its impact on the US and our allies was by intent. its sabotage. its essentially a playbook someone is following to try to induce a second Great Depression

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Charlie Stross
@cstross@wandering.shop replied  ·  activity timestamp 3 days ago

@synlogic4242 I disagree somewhat; authoritarian regimes are breeding grounds for incompetence and crackpot theories espoused by charismatic cranks, and there are far more fools out there than evil geniuses. I don't think Depression 2.0 is the objective; I think it's a side-effect of their chosen strategies for protecting the purity of their precious bodily fluids.

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stephen
@dmaonR@mastodon.online replied  ·  activity timestamp 3 days ago

@cstross @synlogic4242 Exactly this. The US president is an incompetent narcissist. His only plan is the grift. He is using tariffs to get personal concessions/wealth from foreign leaders. His enablers don't care too much as long as they get to move forward with their fascist plans.

Thinking he is an agent of a hostile government is wishful thinking. They run their misinformation campaigns to support him as long as his inept policies harm the west.

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Graydon
@graydon@canada.masto.host replied  ·  activity timestamp 3 days ago

@cstross That's the whole point.

Economic success is functionally defined as making the number of people you're dependent on larger. (Much nuance, many details, but fundamentally.)

I don't think it's emotionally obvious to most people just how intensely the folks with lots and lots of money hate needing anybody.

That hate becomes a desire to forcibly simplify the economy into something that does what they want. (Everyone has to do what they say; they never have to do what they're told.)

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Charlie Stross
@cstross@wandering.shop replied  ·  activity timestamp 3 days ago

@graydon Or, in SF terms, everybody wants to be an autarch with their very own cornucopia machine …

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Graydon
@graydon@canada.masto.host replied  ·  activity timestamp 3 days ago

@cstross It isn't everybody, though; most people value human connection and exchange.

The historical pattern is truckle, barter, and exchange trying to work around the "everything is mine" minority. (and frequently failing because "everything is mine" tends to lead to pyramids of skulls and immolating cities.)

So I'd say the SF terms are "a few people who have cornucopia machines want to make everyone else raw materials" (with a heavy sideline in "does not understand how the machine works")

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Andrew Plotkin
@zarfeblong@mastodon.gamedev.place replied  ·  activity timestamp 3 days ago

@cstross "Economic uncertainty" was the entire Republican policy message when campaigning against Obama in 2012. They banged that drum for months.

(The *social* campaign message was “Gay marriage is stealing your babies.”)

I would like to say that the shoe is on the other foot now, but they’ve cut off their feet and are bragging about how awesome the stumps look.

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Erik
@edebill@wandering.shop replied  ·  activity timestamp 3 days ago

@cstross the immense sums involved in that tech bubble seem to be destroying the utility of a lot of the measures normally used to judge the health of the economy. When it bursts and is no longer papering over weakness in everything else the sudden change in those measures is going to be shocking.

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