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I feel a little better knowing that Paul Erdős also got the wrong answer on the Monty Hall problem the first time around. I encountered through a 1991 neural network demonstration at LANL and did not put up a fight when told I was wrong and the neural net wasn't.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
#math #probability
@stshank Are you familiar with this one, which is very similar -
Alice and Bob have two children.
One of the children is a girl.
What is the probability the other one is also a girl?
@stshank The Monty Hall problem still messes me up. Makes perfect sense when analyzing it statistically, but I still can't wrap my head around it without the math.
@stshank I don’t think I ever really understood this until I saw this diagram and the Cecil Adams quote, and it *instantly* made sense to me.
@darkuncle @stshank What helped me intuit this was scaling it up to 1000 doors, one car and opening 998 doors...
@Weltenkreuzer @darkuncle @stshank
Beat me to it 😄
@darkuncle Yeah that's the path that got me there, too. This illustration is more helpful than, say, the Wikipedia explanation.
@stshank @darkuncle For some reason it clicked immediately for me when someone simply adjusted the scale.
There's 100 doors. You pick one.
Then the host opens 98 other doors.
Do you want to switch?
@dinandmentink @stshank @darkuncle
if ya'll think that the monty hall problem is confusing as hell (which it is), wait till you read about the two envelopes problem, and then if your brain hasn't exploded yet, the boy born on a Tuesday problem will finish you off!
@maltimore @dinandmentink @stshank boy born on a Tuesday problem: unrelated to The Man Who Was Thursday 😂
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