@davidgerard Some great new fake AI themed numbers just dropped (FT): "Oracle sold $18bn of bonds in September to fund infrastructure leases such as OpenAI’s “Stargate” data centre in Abilene, Texas."

So apparently Oracle is taking on debt to pay OpenAI's leases (~ debt) that OpenAI can't or won't pay, while OpenAI is supposed to be paying Oracle a ton of money under that September $300bn cloud deal (but probably isn't).

Since there's still at least 7 months to go until OpenAI IPO, the pumps need to run red-hot around the clock to keep the AI monopoly money legit until payday lest the real-economy recession catch up. 2026 gonna be trippy.

@davidgerard @aapis @sebastian @Lazarou

I'm reminded of the 2008 recession and construction workers. Just prior to 2008, there was a huge boom in building houses. US construction work went from 6.7M people in 2001 to 7.7M people in 2006. By 2011 it had dropped to 5.5M. It would be four years before it got back to the 6.7M number again. And for years, it was actually hard to find construction people because so many had left the field. It still is hard. A huge over-correction.

Chart here

I feel like tech is going through similar things right now. It isn't a mortgage crisis, but the "zero-interest rate" crisis. Companies are going through the major correction phase right now. I would argue that they're over-correcting. But it's going to be a few more years before we truly recognize that.

There is a form of tech recession happening.