Post · bonfire.cafe

We use verbal phrases to communicate probability. "High risk" is higher than "Will never happen", but how much higher? Also, phrases like "Highly probably" refer to a narrower range than "Presumably". A number of studies have categorized how such phrases are used in the English language. (1/3)

#ProbabilityPhrases #VerbalProbability #Risk #PerceivedRisk #Judgement

A violin plot showing typical interpretations of probability phrases that were a priori expected to be "low".

A violin plot showing typical interpretations of probability phrases that were a priori expected to be "high".

Bjørn Sætrevik

@satrevik@fediscience.org replied · last month

In a study published in Scandinavian Journal of Psychology today, we tested the amplitude and range of 22 Norwegian probability phrases. Our preregistered categorizations of the phrases as high/low and broad/narrow were supported by N = 537 online participants. (2/3)

A violin plot showing typical interpretations of probability phrases that were a priori expected to have a "broad" interpretation range.

A violin plot showing typical interpretations of probability phrases that were a priori expected to have a "narrow" interpretation range.

Bjørn Sætrevik

@satrevik@fediscience.org replied · last month

Participants were aware of (but underestimated) the variability in how the phrases are used. More conscious use of probability phrases may improve strategic communication about risk.

Journal publication: http://doi.org/10.1111/sjop.70040
Preprint: https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/4ngja_v2 (3/3)