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Jaap Burger
@burger_jaap@mastodon.social  ·  activity timestamp 2 weeks ago

Why there is no tsunami of waste #EV batteries. And look at the EV share in Ukraine 🇺🇦. Why it is important to get V2G/V2L working for older EVs right now.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/hansericmelin_understanding-the-ev-battery-lifecycle-activity-7389969683216646144-TXHu?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAABEcMcB3X82Sukr6DRApRhqNbEVmN3nVQg

Understanding the EV battery lifecycle – CES 2025 | Hans Eric Melin

🔋 15 slides to understand EVs’ real lifecycle 🖥️ You’re welcome. It’s been a busy month presenting, discussing, and explaining Circular Energy Storage Research and Consulting's data behind our latest forecasts of lithium-ion batteries available for reuse and recycling. This data sits at the heart of our market analysis — the same foundation we’ve built our forecasts on since 2017. And even after all these years, explaining why the supply of used batteries grows more slowly than many think remains a challenge. Old assumptions are hard to kill. 💭 That EV batteries are replaced at 80% SOH (almost never true — only under warranty). 💭 That cars have an average life of 10 years (most last well over 20). 💭 That OEMs will automatically get the batteries back so they can make new batteries These ideas distort how we understand value creation — and therefore the real lifecycle of EV batteries. Here’s the truth: 👉 You can’t drive volume downstream from markets where more value is created upstream. To truly understand a product’s lifecycle, you only need three words: 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞, 𝐎𝐰𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐩, and 𝐐𝐮𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲. The value an owner can still extract from a working battery — or rather, from a battery-powered application — determines where it goes next. The sample slides highlight five market dynamics shaping this reality: 1️⃣ Cars are kept as long as they’re economical to own and repair — often 20+ years. 2️⃣ Most EVs never need a new battery; they’re simply not cycled that much. 3️⃣ Demand for used EVs is soaring in markets where they weren’t originally sold — driving exports. 4️⃣ Reuse generates far higher value than recycling; direct reuse in vehicles beats repurposing — but volumes stay low until prices drop. 5️⃣ Repurposing has promise, but aging batteries and competing supply make the market tough. Also: Low residual values of EVs remain a major industry issue — reducing repair incentives, limiting circular parts, and fueling export. Our volume and market forecasts account for all these factors — and have been doing so, accurately, for over eight years. If you want to understand the real economics of battery lifecycles, take a look at the slides — and reach out if you’d like to discuss what this means for your strategy. #EVs #Batteries #CircularEconomy #EnergyStorage #DataDriven #Reuse #Recycling #Sustainability
Graph shows BEV sales in Ukraine in numbers and share of total car sales: 25% share for 2025 YTD
Graph shows BEV sales in Ukraine in numbers and share of total car sales: 25% share for 2025 YTD
Graph shows BEV sales in Ukraine in numbers and share of total car sales: 25% share for 2025 YTD
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