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@lightweight @jeremy_pm All I can say to that is, good luck. I'll be happy if that surge in UK Greens polling translates into winning seats in an FPP election. I'd be thrilled if the same Green surge happened here. But I see little sign of that so far, and I'm not holding my breath.
@strypey I generally agree with you that there's little sign of a Green surge in New Zealand right now. We're holding up well, as we have been for years, but Labour can offer warmed-over neoliberal nonsense and still rely on 2-3 times the votes.
However… I also think this isn't anything major we're doing wrong, just a general complacency in our society fed by pervasive denialist propaganda. You do what you can in that environment, but the main thing is to stay true to your principles, remain a credible institution, and be ready to take advantage when the old order collapses. That seems to be happening for the UK Greens now. I don't think we can force it here.
@isaacfreeman
> the main thing is to stay true to your principles, remain a credible institution, and be ready to take advantage when the old order collapses
100%. As they are now in the UK, the demographics will shift, Millennials/ Zoomers will outvote Boomers/ Xers, and things will change. This time we need our ideas to be the ones lying around when the crisis comes. We need to be everywhere, talking to everyone, finding common ground, building consensus.
@isaacfreeman
> this isn't anything major we're doing wrong, just a general complacency in our society fed by pervasive denialist propaganda
Fair comment, but I think there are a few things the Greens could do different.
They were one of the first NZ parties to use email lists and to have a blog (remember FrogBlog?), back when most politicos still thought the net was a phase. They could be making more use of new media; podcasting, fediverse, ATmosphere, etc
@strypey For sure. Being everywhere is important, and needs to be organised when you have to do it on a volunteer basis.
@lightweight @jeremy_pm
@isaacfreeman @strypey @lightweight
I know it’s not directly connected but I think Mamdani has provided a great blueprint for how politicians and political parties can reach people who may be outside of their assumed supporter base and energise politics.
Of course being a good looking and charismatic leader doesn’t hurt either. I like the way Chloe is becoming more confident in what she’s proposing.
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One thing I agree with James Shaw about is growing active membership. It was crucial to Corbyn's Labour and it's one of the UK Greens most important achievements with Zack. But it's not just growth that matters, but *how* you grow.
Growth needs to be slow and steady enough for new members to be orientated into the party's structure and culture, and for those to evolve without splintering (side note: I suspect this is what TPM are reckoning with).
@strypey I agree on growing membership and maintaining culture. I think what's critical there is that there be a wider movement and workdview that the party represents. There is a solid small-g green perspective that grounds economic and social concerns in ecological science. It needs a political wing, thus the Green Party. The specific people are important tactically, but if all current MPs and members disappeared overnight, a new green party would rapidly form. No other existing party is going to advance a green political agenda.
This is why I was never particularly interested in Your Party. That's some people trying to catalyse a movement, not a movement creating a party. Likewise TOP in New Zealand.
@jeremy_pm @lightweight
@isaacfreeman
> Your Party ... some people trying to catalyse a movement, not a movement creating a party
I'll admit I don't know much about the details. But there definitely seemed to be a movement propelling Corbyn to the Labour leadership. Didn't the party membership swell in the leadup to his election for the first time in decades?
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@strypey When I say movement, I mean an ideology that's expressed in many projects and institutions. The green movement isn't just the Green Party, it's also Greenpeace, Forest & Bird, the Sierra Club, and many other strong organisations. It's grounded in science and has a coherent economic analysis. The party belongs to that movement, not the other way around.
Corbyn seems like a decent guy, but I don't see a movement behind him. At most he's appealing to a movement that the Labour Party used to represent, but that wasn't enough to overcome the neoliberal movement that it currently exists to serve.
I'm being super reductive of course, and perhaps there's a better word for what I mean. But I'm generally unconvinced by parties that form around particular people. No matter how rapidly they grow in the short term, they're not stable.
@jeremy_pm @lightweight
@isaacfreeman
> But I'm generally unconvinced by parties that form around particular people
Totally agree. But to me it seems like the idea that this is built around Corbyn, comes from the same place as the idea being against IDF genocide is antisemitic; establishment media.
Corbyn is one among dozens of elected MPs and councillors getting behind the new party. That they got re-elected with Sir Stammer's knives in their backs suggests there is a movement behind them.
Just thought I would share this to help you battle your understandable cynicism on the prospects of the UK Greens and the potential for their success to advance the #NZPol Greens in their pursuit of a larger slice of the pie in NZ’s 2026 election.
@jeremy_pm
> Just thought I would share this
I'm aware, since this is exactly what I was commenting on in the post you're replying to. Read it again.
Yes I understand you’re hopeful that the UK Green’s rise in popularity translates to an improved ranking for NZ Greens, I was just sharing because I found UK Greens now outpolling both UK Labour and Conservatives is something of a dynamic power shift.
@jeremy_pm
> UK Greens now outpolling both UK Labour and Conservatives is something of a dynamic power shift
It will be, *if* it translates into winning seats in FPP races. The current regime is deeply unpopular with its own base, and the clownshow of the Tory government is still too raw for protest votes to move there. So UK Greens (and Reform) are surging in polls.
I'm not saying that *can't* translate into seats come the next election, I'm just saying it's not a given.
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Fair comment, Labour under Kid Starver is so far removed from the party’s origins it is unrecognisable and as you say the Conservatives have left themselves unelectable after years of austerity under Tory rule.
The biggest threat in UK politics is the rise of the fascist Reform Party which, as you point out, have received populist support not unlike the Greens on the back of Labour and Conservatives collapse.
Third parties got huge percentages of support in pre-MMP polls. Especially when the public started to sour on first term governments. But it never translated into more than a handful of seats under FPP, and never as high a party vote as those polls once we actually got proportional represention.
Be hopeful. Celebrate the small victories. Just keep in mind there is still an immense amount of work to do before we defeat the NatACTs in the court of public opinion.
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@jeremy_pm @strypey that's a superb commentary. Folks here in Aotearoa can see the parallels for sure!
@lightweight @jeremy_pm @strypey the racing truism is appropriate here, "when the flag drops, the bullshit stops". Until there's election results we just don't know. I hope for change but so rarely see it go in the correct direction.
TBF, the political situation in Aotearoa NZ is quite different from the UK both in electoral system and party relations.
NZ Labour and Greens are quite aligned particularly with both parties understanding that they will have to work together in coalition should they be in a position to form a government after election. Whereas UK politics under FPP is very cut throat.
The hope I have is firstly there’s a change of government but also that the Greens are in a position to have more power and influence in the next #NZPol govt.
@jeremy_pm
> NZ Labour and Greens are quite aligned
In what parallel universe?! They were briefly aligned. After Robertson, Little and Ardern dragged Labour back to the centre-left, and Shaw and Winston dragged their parties to the right economically (remember Robertson and Shaw's neoliberal Budget Responsibility Rules?).
Since Hipkins it's been back to BaU; spineless, centre-right pandering. Bringing us right back to the jumping off point;
Aligned in as much as them having to work together and find areas of common ground.
@jeremy_pm @strypey yes, been watching this. We're seeing a new generation of very smart, young, principled leaders taking the reins. I'm hopeful for the first time in ages.
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Especially while we've got an ultraconservative regime engaged in active voter suppression. In a transparently cynical attempt to keep themselves in power at any cost.
If they succeed, this will hurt small parties more. So Labour are unlikely to put up more than finger-wagging resistence to it. Even though they could probably defeat it if they gave their blessing to affiliated unions to mobilise against it en masse.
Now if the Greens could get the missing million on the roll early ...
Side note: with all due respect to Marama, I think she'd give the Greens their best chance of eclipsing Labour by standing down as co-leader. Soon enough for a new Māori co-leader to step up before the end of the year.
I went to the Greens budget roadshop in The Tron with Marama as MC. She clearly still cares but she's just as clearly exhausted and dialing it in. She needs to let herself rest, and make space for someone who's firing on all cylinders. The caucus is not short of Māori talent.
@lightweight @jeremy_pm One more thing, if you look at the trend across all polls since the start of the year;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Graph_of_opinion_polls_by_party..svg
... both Greens and TPM (and TOP) have been steadily losing ground, to the benefit of Labour, NZ First and the Nats. The tide looks to be going out on progressive parties in NZ right now. Also, 3 of the last 5 polls do show the left block ahead, but only 1 by more than the margin of error.
A week is a long time in politics and all that, but ...
