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About a week ago, #GordonCampbell threw cold water on the prospect of regime change in 2026;
"National can win with Luxon regardless. This country hasn’t had a genuine one term government since the Labour government of 1957-1960. (If Norman Kirk hadn’t died, his government would probably have been re-elected in 1975.)"
I'm not so sure. In 2019 there was equally good reason to think a one-party majority would never happen under MMP.
(1/?)
Campbell is right though that polling would have to swing at least 5% in favour of the left block to give them a fighting chance. Or one of the Nats support parties' polling would have to drop under 5%. Not just in 1 or 2 polls either, I'm talking about the trend line.
What would really throw the cat among the pigeons though is if TOP could get their polling to trend over 5%. That would give the Nats another option, but adding TOP to the current coalition would only amplify the chaos.
(2/?)
Campbell is also right that ...
"... this track record [of a 2 term minimum] is a good argument against extending the parliamentary term. In reality, New Zealand governments already have de facto six year terms."
A 4 year term would give all but the most blatantly incompetent governments a de facto term of 8 years.
(3/3)
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