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tante
@tante@tldr.nettime.org  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago

Btw. about 6 months ago the Anthropic CEO said that by now 50% of all code would be written by LLMs.

How does that prediction relate to the reality we all live in and what does that say about his ability to make predictions about the future?

(https://www.businessinsider.com/anthropic-ceo-ai-90-percent-code-3-to-6-months-2025-3)

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Seth
@slankford@infosec.exchange replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante you don’t need an LLM to write bad code, but it is a great force multiplier.
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der.hans
@lufthans@mastodon.social replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante AI will be producing 90% of the puke. Not that drunkards are going to produce less puke, but AI will start producing 10 times more puke than we currently have

The world will be awash in fake stomach acid, they will paint the walls in technicolor puike, bile will run in the streets

Mr Creosote has met his match.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxRnenQYG7I

#MrCreosote#AIeeeee

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Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante this will depend a lot on the definition of "writing" and "lines of code". If you count individual characters, autocomplete probably has been "writing" the majority of code for quite some time. Lots of autocomplete functionality gets meshed in with LLMs these days, and so, without representing any major shift in the way we write code, you can massage the statistics to make it look like AI is "writing" a lot more code than we would otherwise say.

In the end, a lot of writing code is about the code that isn't written, and hand edited automatically generated code has been with us pretty much since the time text editors were powerful enough to support it.

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Troy
@troy@opencoaster.net replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante we’ve basically banned ai at work for code after trialing it and finding it cost us way more time to fix than if we had just written it by hand.
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staringatclouds
@staringatclouds@mstdn.social replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante And in the same 6 months close to 100%, if not exactly 100%, of that LLM generated code will need to be debugged, at great expense, by someone who learned how to do this by writing code that LLM's are now producing

When these people, who learned their craft by doing it, retire or give up because idiot managers replace them with LLM's & they can't get jobs

Who will fix the bugs then ?

There won't be any new experienced people who know how to debug & all the rest will be gone

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Oggie
@Oggie@woof.group replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante
I actually now imagine they have an LLM sitting in a box just outputting like, 1 billion lines of code each day.

'Our metric shall rule them all!'

It doesnt' do anything, of course, but still.

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Elias Mårtenson
@loke@functional.cafe replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante All you have to do is to generate 10 times more slop code than are currently written by humans, and these systems are certainly capable of that, no?

No one said anything about the quality or even usefulness of said code?

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Elias Mårtenson
@loke@functional.cafe replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante All you have to do is to generate 10 times more slop code than are currently written by humans, and these systems are certainly capable of that, no?
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Patrick H. Lauke
@patrick_h_lauke@mastodon.social replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante it's likely true by the sheer volume of bullshit AI generated code that's being produced. real human written code is still the same, and AI is slop-vomiting 9 times as much code now that is utter shit and doesn't actually work, or borderline does but is absolutely inefficient and wasteful...
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xinit ☕
@xinit@mastodon.coffee replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante My bet's that the LLM that he had generate his talking points is the source of that number.
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alg0w
@alg0w@social.vivaldi.net replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante Maybe he is right, the amount of AI slop will be so absurdly large that it can literally be 90% of all code.
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Roy
@pappabosley@mastodon.social replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante obvious BS aside, the thing that gets me is this notion of people not taking note of the AI replacement on their livelihoods. Assuming he was right, what are people going to do in this AI dystopia? They're not talking about new jobs appearing, is he suggesting we have the revolution early, while we're still well fed and healthy?
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MPG
@mpg@grumble.social replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante a former coworker was continuing her CS degree. She related a story of chatting with a prof about students using #AI to do their homework. Prof related giving an intro assignment: create a function that will return true or false if a submitted text string contains a vowel.

Instead of 1 function, the students who used AI to do their work returned a 7 function program: contains_vowel(txt) which in turn called contains_a(txt), contains_e(txt) contains_i(txt)....

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Urzl
@gooba42@mastodon.social replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante In a similar timeframe my employer's CEO told us he's planning for 100% AI written code. Meanwhile the organization can't reliably document an internal API or library for human consumption.

There's zero possibility of it happening without major investment in the infrastructure they already refuse to do for humans.

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unruhe
@unruhe@mastodon.social replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante so in 6 months the new jobs are going to be fix the shi...t code AI generated!
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Dan Neuman 🇨🇦
@dan613@ottawa.place replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante Lies to boost his stock. He will make new lies at every opportunity so that we forget the old ones. It's the American Way.
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musicmatze :rust: :nixos:
@musicmatze@social.linux.pizza replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante
I am a software engineer. 80% of the time I do not write code, but talk to people about what the code should do.

If "AI" would write 50% of the code, that would "save me" 10% of my time, or most likely less, all under the assumption that the code is perfect, which of course is just a wet dream of some managers that don't know shit about technology.

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GrayGooGlitch :v_lesbian:
@GrayGooGirl@mstdn.games replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante
Not like anyone is fact-checking marketing copy. It was 2+ years ago they said we were "95% of the way" to AGI. This is and always will be about conning people into buying products that have no legitimate use case so a handful of companies can eventually become profitable. Weird corporate ouroboros chasing nonexistent profits and efficiencies.
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Travis Southard
@travissouthard@jawns.club replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante Even if that is true: How much will even work? How much of that is just spammed code on GitHub to boost green squares?
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Efi (nap pet) 🦊💤
@efi@chitter.xyz replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante CEOs love to underestimate the work real human workers do
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Carl
@carl@chaos.social replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante What could possibly go wrong.
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glutto
@glutto@mastodon.social replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante

He doesn't care about reality. He got his gigantic investments and he got his big pay bonus. Results do not matter, especially when he can say "another 6 months" and the cycle repeats.

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Peter Bindels
@dascandy@infosec.exchange replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante well, it might be writing 50% of the *code*. It's not creating 50% of the *features* though - more like 90% of the code debt.
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Toni Aittoniemi
@gimulnautti@mastodon.green replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante Another non-dev commenting on what he doesn’t know.

There is a well-known saying: ”The last 10% of a product’s development takes 90% of the time.”

Even if that was true by line-count (and it won’t be, just another Elonism), it still wouldn’t make much difference.

Further, a lot of lines in industry codebases arent handwritten even now! ”Code Generators” provide devs with great options to avoid writing boilerplate code themselves. But they don’t make random mistakes.

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Pēteris Krišjānis
@peteriskrisjanis@toot.lv replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante since when anyone would listen to startup CEO whose sole goal is to scam and sell off snake oil product?
There is no gotcha, that is their game.
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lobingera
@lobingera@chaos.social replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante We still have time until sept 14th ?
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Kierk or gaanks
@Kierkegaanks@beige.party replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante is this the extinction event of computers?
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Sibiaha
@Sibiaha@mastodon.social replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante Why do we keep seeing headlines about people who use % like an almost-accurate way of measuring their -self claimed- success with zero objectivity?
It feels like betting on the weather with your windows closed, yet trying to convince both the public and the investors you are looking at the sky.
cate
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Arnd Layer
@iamlayer8@mastodon.social replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante
One could get to this result if LLMs were now creating as much code as was written by humans before.
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Raphael Albert
@r_alb@mastodon.social replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante
How long until they'll begin to blame the "leftist luddite LLM-loathers" every time something that they previously bullshitted to VCs and managers doesn't happen? 🤔
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tante
@tante@tldr.nettime.org replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@r_alb Have you read Marc Andreessen's manifestos? The communists and luddites are explicitly to blame
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Raphael Albert
@r_alb@mastodon.social replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante
I shouldn't be surprised...
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hagen terschüren
@hagen@mastodon.social replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante to quote the aws ceo: “It’s a silly metric,” he said, because while organizations can use AI to write “infinitely more lines of code” it could be bad code.

“Often times fewer lines of code is way better than more lines of code,” he observed. “So I'm never really sure why that's the exciting metric that people like to brag about.”

https://www.theregister.com/2025/08/21/aws_ceo_entry_level_jobs_opinion/

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Claudius
@claudius@darmstadt.social replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante maybe internally they are at 90%, and now nothing works any more 🤣
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Lars Marowsky-Brée 😷
@larsmb@mastodon.online replied  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago
@tante I guess that makes him more accurate than most politician's promises ...? 😕
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