Thanks everyone for your responses! I am 50-75%. As Tumblr, Threads and others join the Fediverse, I believe there will be a centre of gravity that will bring in other large networks. There's a lot of overlap but I think with ~5B people on the Internet, we can get to 20% coverage.
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@evan As always, I admire your passion and continued hard work building ActivityPub. I wish I shared your optimism about Threads and Tumblr, but at this point I don’t have confidence in either company joining the fediverse in a meaningful way. And maybe that’s ok…the open web is here for the people who want and respect it. Just my 2 cents and #YMMV. I voted 0-25%, but only because I don’t trust Meta or Automattic (i.e. that selection was not for any technical reason).