And now: A thread regarding my thoughts on "1.5°C"--not only as a Paris Agreement target, but also re: relevance to recent #climate events & overlaps (or not) w/geophysical realities. (This was originally written as a response to a journalist, who used excerpts in their article.)
Discussion
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First and foremost, it's absolutely true that every tenth of a degree matters; each increment of global warming will bring a relatively larger increase in adverse societal and ecological impacts than the last.
This statement is not so much about rate of warming itself, but a reflection of growing recognition that Earth system (especially the biosphere and cryosphere) can respond non-linearly, and sometimes abruptly or even irreversibly on human timescales, to gradual shifts in climate.
It's also a consequence of hydrological cycle intensification, which actually scales exponentially with warming--and, thus, we should expect to see an acceleration inintensity of events like flash floods, droughts, & wildfires so long as warming rate remains steady.
See, for example, our recent review on increasing hydroclimate whiplash and the consequences of the "Expanding Atmospheric Sponge:"
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-024-00624-z
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