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David Ruffner
@davidruffner@raphus.social  ·  activity timestamp 2 weeks ago

I have been on a kick reading/listening about how human civilization will stop growing. It is crazy the disconnect between these physical limits and "common sense". People talk about how in the long term stocks go up in value. So much of our society is predicated on perpetual growth. But nothing grows for ever even if it has grown for the past few centuries.

Tom Murphy has a very solid argument about how economics is tied to the physical world, and physical limits will lead to the economy to stop growing. I recently came across his Comment in the journal Nature Physics
https://tmurphy.physics.ucsd.edu/papers/limits-econ-final.pdf

#limitsToGrowth

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Guido Stevens
@guidostevens@kolektiva.social  ·  activity timestamp 2 months ago

Limits to Growth: To Save the Planet, We Need New Ways of Thinking

The mess we’re in was not only foreseeable; it was foreseen. In 1972 a landmark paper was published: The Limits to Growth. It’s been called “the most influential science paper of the last 50 years”.

Fifty years after its publication, Limits to Growth is still the best place to start investigating humanity’s prospects for future survival.

Here's my summary:

https://darkedge.world/posts/limits_to_growth_new_ways_of_thinking/

#limitstogrowth #collapse

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Sally Strange
@SallyStrange@eldritch.cafe  ·  activity timestamp 9 months ago

Some choice quotes from new Lancet study on #degrowth or #PostGrowth and planetary health:

"Doughnut, wellbeing, and steady-state economics generally position their proposals within the current capitalist system, whereas degrowth is critical of the possibilities of an egalitarian slowdown within capitalism given that capitalist competition is structurally geared towards growth. Degrowth therefore emphasises the need for a planned, democratic transformation of the economic system to drastically reduce ecological impact and inequality and improve wellbeing. Degrowth, similarly to steady-state economics, regards a lower GDP as a probable outcome of efforts to substantially reduce resource use. Reducing GDP is not a goal of these approaches, however, but, it is seen as something that economies need to be made resilient to. The Doughnut and wellbeing approaches are more agnostic about GDP growth, but still view it as a poor measure of progress. Post-growth is plural and open to all these perspectives. All approaches converge on the need for qualitative improvement without relying on quantitative growth, and on selectively decreasing the production of less necessary and more damaging goods and services, while increasing beneficial ones."

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00310-3/fulltext

Sally Strange
@SallyStrange@eldritch.cafe replied  ·  activity timestamp 9 months ago

Revisiting "Limits To Growth" on its 50th anniversary:

"Scientists have also sought to assess the validity of the Limits to Growth model by looking at how well it fits historical trends since its publication. Previous studies have explored how the various runs of the Limits to Growth model compare with actual trends and suggest that the world is most closely tracking the Double Resources scenario, which differs from the Standard Run in its assumption that the initial stock of non-renewable resources is twice as large as the Standard Run resource stock (figure 1). In this scenario, collapse occurs later and is driven not by scarcity of non-renewable resources (ie, a source limit), as in the Standard Run, but by persistent pollution and its impact on ecosystem stability (ie, a sink limit, otherwise known as a regenerative capacity limit)."

#DeGrowth #LimitsToGrowth

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00310-3/fulltext

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