The Next Two Years of Software Engineering
https://addyosmani.com/blog/next-two-years/
#HackerNews #SoftwareEngineering #Future #Trends #TechInnovation #AddyOsmani #EngineeringInsights
"The key insight I've gained from working with these tools is that the future isn't about AI replacing developers - it's about AI becoming an increasingly capable collaborator that can take initiative while still respecting human guidance and expertise."
#AddyOsmani, 2024
https://addyo.substack.com/p/the-70-problem-hard-truths-about
In others words, as @pluralistic's puts it, enabling a human to be a centaur. Rather than being forced into being a reverse-centaur in service to the Trained #MOLE;
"It's becoming a pattern: Teams use AI to rapidly build impressive demos. The happy path works beautifully. Investors and social networks are wowed. But when real users start clicking around? That's when things fall apart."
#AddyOsmani, 2024
https://addyo.substack.com/p/the-70-problem-hard-truths-about
It's been a pattern for about 20 years. Just replace "AI" with blockchains, or frameworks, or whatever the new hotness was at the time. I can't find it right now, but @baldur wrote a great piece about this;
This isn't even glorified autocomplete, it's glorified continuous integration. Proposing this as a use for a Trained #MOLE is a classic example of a solution in search of a problem.
(2/2)
"The key insight I've gained from working with these tools is that the future isn't about AI replacing developers - it's about AI becoming an increasingly capable collaborator that can take initiative while still respecting human guidance and expertise."
#AddyOsmani, 2024
https://addyo.substack.com/p/the-70-problem-hard-truths-about
In others words, as @pluralistic's puts it, enabling a human to be a centaur. Rather than being forced into being a reverse-centaur in service to the Trained #MOLE;
I see no reason to believe that using a Trained #MOLE as a self-study aid is any more effective than using a web browser and a decent search engine. Or a Q+A site like StackExhange. But guess which one uses more resources to achieve that same result?
I'd go further and say it's less effective than working your way through HowTo books or online courses written by experienced educators, in collaboration with subject matter experts. Which can be as simple as PDF or a static website.
(3/3)
Further down, the hype train reaches top speed;
"But look at newer features like Anthropic's computer use in Claude, or Cline's ability to automatically launch browsers and run tests. These aren't just glorified autocomplete - they're actually understanding tasks and taking initiative to solve problems."
#AddyOsmani, 2024
https://addyo.substack.com/p/the-70-problem-hard-truths-about
You don't need a Trained MOLE to automate that. It's a simple linear task that can be automated using standard scripting methods.
(1/2)
You could probably get a Trained #MOLE to spit out blueprints for a bridge, and build it. But there's the reason we have architects and civil engineers, who do years of training before they're allowed to build a bridge. Anyone can build a bridge, but it take specialist knowledge and experience to build a bridge that doesn't fall down when crossed, or shake itself to pieces in a strong wind.
"This gap will likely narrow as tools improve. But for now, the most pragmatic approach is to use AI to accelerate learning, not replace it entirely."
#AddyOsmani, 2024
https://addyo.substack.com/p/the-70-problem-hard-truths-about
There are much more effective learning aids already available. Also Osmani sneaks in a huge and highly questionable assumption; that more #MOLE Training will result in improved tools. There's good reason to believe that the current tools are the best that can be produced with generative models.
(1/3)
"The very thing that makes AI coding tools accessible to non-engineers - their ability to handle complexity on your behalf - can actually impede learning. When code just "appears" without you understanding the underlying principles ...
This creates a dependency where you need to keep going back to AI to fix issues, rather than developing the expertise to handle them yourself."
#AddyOsmani, 2024
https://addyo.substack.com/p/the-70-problem-hard-truths-about