Discussion
Today I started catching up on the last couple of editions of A View From Afar, beginning with the May 18 edition;
https://eveningreport.nz/2026/05/18/live-1230pm-avfa-podcast-summits-geopolitics-institutional-lag-industrial-resilience/
In which Paul Buchanan references claims that Chinese forces have been wargaming an invasion of Taiwan for 2027.
(1/?)
I don't doubt that CCP forces are wargaming this possibility. But we have to ask, what would motivate the CCP to expend resources claiming a tiny island, which they've happily coexisted with for decades under the One China Policy?
There's only one reason I can think of. To prevent it becoming a US naval base, right off their coast.
(2/?)
"The Wall Street Journal in February last year reported that the US was to send 100 to 200 military training personnel to Taiwan 'in the coming months', which was unconfirmed by officials on either side."
#KayleighMadjar, 2024
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2024/04/24/2003816895
That doesn't sound like a denial. This kind of escalation from the 40-50 US personnel traditionally stationed there - with no regard for Taiwanese interests - certainly fits with the warmongering stance of the Orange Stalin administration.
(3/?)
To be clear, I'm not making an argument about what's ethical, but what's logical.
Put yourself in the CCP's shoes. You see the US thumbing its nose at the One China Policy that kept Taiwan nonpartisan and mostly demilitarised for decades. You get intelligence that they're ramping up military personnel numbers there. What would you do?
My point is, the best thing the US can for the security of Taiwan is to stay out of its business. Any risk they now face has been created by US actions.
(4/?)
If I was the Taiwanese government OTOH, I'd be looking at the US as an increasingly unreliable ally - both domestically and geopolitically. In fact, I'd be tempted to characterise the US as just as much of a threat to Taiwanese independence as China.
I'd certainly be conducting deescalation talks with the CCP, to make sure that they understand that. Along the lines of 'we're not with those guys, we just have to share a world with them, like you do'.
(5/5)
Install bonfire.cafe
Get the full app experience
