Discussion
"People on both sides have quietly stopped believing in the country. Not swinging hard left or right — just losing faith that the system delivers for them at all. Blame Trump. Blame the Democrats. Blame immigrants, globalisation, Wall Street, Washington, the media — everyone’s got their villain."
#ShaneTePou, 2026
(1/?)
Strip it back, though, and what’s left is a simple, uncomfortable truth: the American promise is getting harder to believe in. We heard it two years ago. It’s louder now. And it’s a message that’s becoming clearer here in Aotearoa too.
#ShaneTePou, 2026
Except that the US and Aotearoa are different in almost every way. Other than being predominantly English-speaking, and having governments chosen by elections, we have almost nothing else in common.
(2/?)
I'm not the first to point out that the US seems to be going the kind of extreme hypernormalization the USSR went through in the decade or 2 before it collapsed. See the 2016 Adam Curtis film on the subject.
Nor am I the first to say that there's a good chance we'll see the US fall apart in my lifetime. Paul Buchanan, a former Pentagon analyst now based in Aotearoa, has said as much on the A View From Afar podcast. Notably he also said this is much easier to see from outside the country.
(3/?)
Even if the US survives the next couple of decades, with its current boundaries, it won't be in its current form.
Either it will continue its slide towards having Emperors instead of elected Presidents, or it will manage to reform the constitution to prevent that. Including by adding language confirming that money isn't speech, so people can't use their wealth to buy election results, and thus increase their wealth. Forcing SCOTUS to undo Citizens United, and preventing a repeat
(4/?)
Is the NZ state similarly at risk of collapse? Very unlikely. Because with clearly defined island borders, and a total population smaller than many US states, it's much easier to find a basic cross-society consensus about how government ought to work.
Yes, we're probably in line for some constitutional reform too. The argument for it has never been clearer than the last 3 years. But although it would certainly benefit us, we can stumble on as a democracy without it, mainly thanks to MMP.
(5/5)
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