p data-start334 data-end973Produced by the OECD Development Centre and UN-Habitat this report argues that Africarsquos intermediary cities are reaching a critical turning point Cities such as Nakuru and Kiambu in Kenya and Beira and Quelimane in Mozambique are growing rapidly yet they are not locked into high-carbon development in the way many large global cities already are Much of their infrastructure transport systems and planning frameworks are still being built This gives them a rare opportunity to avoid car-dependent sprawling and polluting urban models and instead move toward cities that are cleaner more inclusive and easier to live inp h3 data-start975 data-end1004Fast growth rising risksh3 p data-start1006 data-end1836Urban growth in Kenya and Mozambique is accelerating Kenyarsquos urban population is expected to grow by almost 80 by 2050 while Mozambiquersquos built-up urban land is projected to more than triple Although both countries contribute only a small share of global greenhouse gas emissions emissions from transport are rising quickly and have become the main source of urban pollution As cities expand outward people travel longer distances informal motorised transport grows and congestion worsens These trends raise emissions but also increase local problems such as air pollution road accidents poor access to jobs and services and high infrastructure costs The report stresses that climate mitigation in cities is not only about global climate goals it is also about improving daily life health and economic efficiencyp h3 data-start1838 data-end1878Thinking in systems not quick fixesh3 p data-start1880 data-end2670A central message of the report is that urban problems cannot be solved with isolated measures Building more roads to reduce congestion for example often makes traffic worse by encouraging more driving To address this the report uses a systems thinking approach that looks at how transport land use investment decisions governance structures and social attitudes interact over time Instead of focusing only on visible problems like traffic jams systems thinking helps identify the deeper causes that keep cities locked into unsustainable patterns The OECD and UN-Habitat apply a four-step method that helps cities imagine a long-term future understand how current systems work identify key leverage points for change and co-design practical solutions with local stakeholdersp h3 data-start2672 data-end2720Four cities different paths shared lessonsh3 p data-start2722 data-end3663The case studies reveal both warnings and opportunities In Nakuru and Kiambu road expansion has encouraged more car use and the rapid growth of informal transport services such as matatus and motorcycle taxis At the same time unplanned urban expansion has pushed housing far from jobs and services making walking and cycling harder and increasing dependence on motorised travel These forces reinforce each other driving congestion and emissions higher In Mozambique Beirarsquos wide road network has delayed congestion creating a false sense of security Once traffic increases further the city risks a sudden and costly lock-in to car-based mobility Quelimane stands out as a positive example with a strong cycling culture supported by thousands of taxi bikes This low-emission system supports livelihoods and accessibility but it is fragile and threatened by urban sprawl rising incomes and flood risks linked to climate changep h3 data-start3665 data-end3694What change can look likeh3 p data-start3696 data-end4698 data-is-last-node data-is-only-nodeAcross all four cities workshops with local governments planners transport operators and civil society produced remarkably similar visions of the future Participants envisioned cities where walking and cycling are safe and attractive public transportation is reliable and affordable streets serve as public spaces and green areas enhance the quality of life To move toward these goals the report highlights key areas for action redesigning streets to serve people rather than cars planning cities around access to services rather than travel speed building integrated public transport systems instead of relying on unregulated informal services and changing social attitudes that see car ownership as the main symbol of success The report concludes that intermediary cities still have time to act With early coordinated and system-wide decisions they can avoid repeating the mistakes of larger cities and instead build urban futures that are low-carbon resilient and fair for their residentsp