@urlyman The number of cars is not fixed ("1.5 B replaced every decade or so"). It's not actually even close to being fixed. Actually, car ownership is still increasing at a high rate.
All slight improvements in efficiency are swamped by the growth in numbers. Yes, electric cars have slightly lower lifetime emissions *per vehicle* than petrol cars, but they don't have 1/8th of the impact. 1/8th of the impact is where they'd have to be to make their cumulative impact comparable with the number of cars which were on our streets when I was born.
But let us remember that even in the mid 1960s when I was born we already knew that cars were unsustainable.
So we actually have to go well below the ownership levels of 60 years ago before we can even think about calling cars anything like sustainable.
A sustainable future requires that we stop living for our cars. Stop arranging our lives around them. People lived in every corner of the planet without cars in the past. Many of us still do. The majority need to realise one again that they can also live without them.
@dagb