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Martin Rundkvist
Martin Rundkvist
@mrundkvist@archaeo.social  ·  activity timestamp last week

#Crime is a perennial problem. A lot of blame is being laid on groups in society. But there's one number you never see in these discussions.

What percentage of everyone is a criminal?

It's a single-digit percentage. Grab 100 random people in Sweden: 3 of them are criminals.

But there are in fact groups that have a higher percentage, though still low. Here are some strongly correlated factors.

* Poor
* Young
* Men
* With short education

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Martin Rundkvist
Martin Rundkvist
@mrundkvist@archaeo.social replied  ·  activity timestamp last week

The parameter "immigrant" is fairly useless for crime prediction. This is because lots of immigrants are

* Not poor
* Not young
* Women & girls
* With education

So if someone blames #crime on immigrants, they need to explain why wealthy old lady dentists are not included in their concept of the immigrant.

#immigration

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