Post by @solar_chase@mastodon.green

Time for 2026 updates to my annual “opinions about solar” thread, now with storage. If you like these, you might like edition 2 of my book, Solar Power Finance Without The Jargon. A 30% discount code WSQ0437 is valid on publisher website til end-November 2026.

It's the book I should have read before trying to get a job in renewable energy. Reviewers say it is “to the point, important, and taught me a lot” and “surprisingly entertaining, don’t be put off by the title”.

https://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/q0437#t=aboutBook

https://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/q0437

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Jenny Chase

@solar_chase@mastodon.green 8 hr. ago

I have put out this thread once a year on X since 2017 and Mastodon / bluesky since 2024. See the 2025 thread below, and from there links to previous threads. So you can see what I got wrong, or at least changed.

This year for the first time I am officially a Clean Power analyst, not a Solar analyst. Alarmingly this means I am now expected to know about batteries, but it also means these Opinions are more varied.

https://mastodon.green/@solar_chase/115405218786390108

Jenny Chase

@solar_chase@mastodon.green 8 hr. ago

1. It’s the end of the beginning of the age of cheap solar. 2026 is likely to be the first down year for PV build, despite module prices of 11-12 US cents per Watt in normal markets, not substantially up from the lowest levels ever (9 cents in 2025 before a Chinese export tax rebate was cancelled).

A chart showing BloombergNEF’s forecast of global PV build by year, as of October 2026. It shows global new build falling from 655GW in 2025 to 584GW in 2026, mainly due to a drop in China. In 2027 the market recovers slightly to 618GW, but it stays well below 900GW/year to 2036.

Jenny Chase

@solar_chase@mastodon.green 8 hr. ago

2. Solar was about 8.8% of global electricity generation in 2025 (from BNEF’s generation stats, which stick to published figures, ie no selfconsumption or offgrid solar or fossil). It’s much higher in places, eg 18% in Germany (shown as chart). This is causing fewer problems than once feared.

A chart sourced to BloombergNEF showing annual generation in Germany from 2005 to 2025. The yellow sliver of solar grows from nothing to 18%; the blue sliver of wind grows from 4.5% to 26.3%. This is at the expense of nuclear (from 27.2% in 2005 to zero in 2023) and coal (46.3% in 2005, 20.4% in 2025) though gas grows from 11.6% to 17%. Overall power demand also dipped noticeably over the period.

Jenny Chase

@solar_chase@mastodon.green 8 hr. ago

3. Solar is struggling because it’s running into saturation effects in major markets, where there’s already plenty of power in sunny hours, and adding more solar panels generates the most power in the same hours. The power stack in Germany in a sunny week now looks like this.

A chart, sourced to BNEF and ENTSOE-E, showing the hourly German power generation stack from July 12, 2026 to July 19, 2026. Solar (bright yellow) absolutely dominates in the middle of every day, often generating 48-50GW in a grid where load peaks at 62GW. Power exports frequently exceeded 7GW in the middle of the day.

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