Some #climateDiary estimates absorbed while listening to @hausfath
Part 1 of 2:
The 8 biggest recent historic El Niños have tended to have a cyclical global warming effect of ~0.2°C.
This year’s El Niño, which will probably peak late Nov to early Dec, looks to have a global warming effect of ~0.3°C.
The year following each of the 8 has always been substantially hotter than the El Niño year. So there is high confidence that next year will be the hottest year on record
…Part 2 of 2:
There is little evidence that El Niños are themselves contributing to overall warming.
However, there is somewhat of a correlation with:
- Cumulative anthropogenic global heating has recently been about 0.2°C every 8 years
- It looks like we are shifting to a heating of about 0.3°C per decade
- So in this sense, next year’s El Niño-induced warming will provide a preview of sorts of what our mean temperature normality will be a decade from now