Post by @rmflight@mastodon.social

RE: https://mastodon.social/@arstechnica/117320026171537087

Instead of reading this reporting, that yes, includes more recent data from the ESA, there is an excellent piece by @sundogplanets and others in The Conversation from back in June, that I think gives much more useful information on how crowded space orbits are, the relative danger of a Kessler syndrom type event, and I'm kind of surprised the Ars Technica article didn't reference.

https://theconversation.com/a-new-crash-clock-measures-the-chance-of-satellite-collisions-and-its-ticking-down-fast-283481

The Conversation

A new CRASH Clock measures the chance of satellite collisions, and it’s ticking down fast

How prepared are we for a solar storm, bad software update or cybersecurity event that could trigger widespread loss of satellite control?

Ars Technica

@arstechnica@mastodon.social 6 days ago

There are now 17,000 satellites in orbit—and growing. Should we be concerned?

"I think we are going to lose the ability to use certain orbits."
https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/09/there-are-now-17000-satellites-in-orbit-and-growing-should-we-be-concerned/?utm_brand=arstechnica&utm_social-type=owned&utm_source=mastodon&utm_medium=social

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Prof. Sam Lawler

@sundogplanets@mastodon.social 6 days ago

@rmflight Thanks for the shout-out! Would have been nice to see a CRASH Clock reference in this article, but Moriba Jah is one of the best people in the world to interview on this topic, so this article is doing just fine.

Trouble

@trouble@masto.ai 3 hr. ago

@sundogplanets @rmflight that's a great article cover photo. At a glance it tells you there's too much junk / garbage in orbit.

Dr. Robert M Flight

@rmflight@mastodon.social 6 days ago

@sundogplanets that may be so, but it feels like the whole article down plays how bad the situation really is, and doesn't talk about just how bad it is going to get if we keep approving SpaceX and others satellite constellations.

Or maybe it just felt like it didn't do that good a job of translating the ESA report, even though that's exactly what it claims to be trying to do.

Prof. Sam Lawler

@sundogplanets@mastodon.social 6 days ago

@rmflight This guy is very pro-space-development, so I felt like the admission at the end that Kessler syndrome might actually happen on a short-ish timescale was a pretty big step. Maybe I'm being overly generous.