Discussion
It's pretty simple. You're hearing "We're so scared of the AIs, we need to reign them in" from the very US companies building and selling them for two reasons:
- They're about to IPO, and it's amazing marketing for them
- They want a regulatory moat, since they're deeply worried about the open weight LLMs. They want everyone dependent on this tech and to be *the only ones legally permitted to dispense it*.
@cwebber I'm writing an explainer on this. Should be out in the next day or so. I broke it down into four main parties: OpenAI/SpaceX/Anthropic; capital markets, the US government, and creepy nerds.
@cwebber the funniest thing possible that could happen is they get the regulatory moat, followed by the bubble finally popping and they all go bankrupt
@cwebber Also by a happy coincidence they had this epiphany shortly before an expected rise in interest rates.
@cwebber so, I tend to agree with this pov.
But the current AI safety conversation started when an ex-Anthropic researcher said he was scared, which doesn't fit the corporate astroturfing narrative.
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/anthropic-researcher-quits-over-out-of-control-ai-fears-707b7628
@cwebber I mean, maybe the guy was part of a marketing maneuver, but that seems kind of extreme on his part. Or maybe the companies capitalized on the concerns he raised.
@brunogirin @cwebber I mean, almost by definition!
@cwebber Standard issue monopoly throgh regulatory capture. Make it impossible for competition to comply.
They always want a regulatory moat, these fuckers.
As for IPO though - pure speculation here - I wonder if their finances look like absolute muck and they're not quite ready to be seen with their pants down to the extent you need to before an IPO. They could be absolute dogs on paper, and I suspect they are.
Some had it that if IPO didn't happen this year they OpenAI + Anthropic are in trouble. Which would mean they are in trouble, and may be trying to dress it up for acquisition.
@cwebber "It'll be the boxing match of the century! We had the legally register the fighter's hands as deadly weapons!"
@cwebber
Don't worry, everything will be alright.
@cwebber I'm anxious about what happens to the rest of the cloud when the "AI Data Center" bottom falls out.
Unless they've very carefully segmented and air-gapped the LLM portion of the compute, there's going to be giant chunks of the cloud going dark.
Install bonfire.cafe
Get the full app experience
@cwebber
Regulatory capture -- always a fun game for sociopaths
https://www.theregister.com/ai-and-ml/2026/09/14/big-ai-sets-out-its-terms-for-regulatory-capture-and-calls-it-pace-the-frontier/5296067
https://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2026/09/14/viral-ai-doom-post-sparks-market-fear-and-regulatory-capture-concerns-for-nasdaq-nvda-nasdaq-googl-nasdaq-amd/
https://www.theregreview.org/2026/08/31/shapiro-regulatory-capture-and-the-fossil-fuel-companies-attempts-to-preempt-tort-lawsuits/
Tort law manipulation in disguise.
The fossil fuel industry & its shills in AI want what the gun lobby got; the impunity to mass murder
https://themodernregulator.com/how-regulatory-capture-works-and-what-regulators-can-do-about-it/
The goal is to shield profits & privilege to a select few.
https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/regulatory-capture/
https://www.rstreet.org/commentary/bootleggers-baptists-and-ai/
It also balloons profits for bootleggers, just like Prohibition did for the mafia
Bootleggers, Baptists, and AI - R Street Institute
The intricacies of regulatory capture – GIS Reports
How regulatory capture works
Regulatory Capture and Fossil Fuel Attempts to Preempt Tort Suits
Viral AI Doom Post Sparks Market Fear And Regulatory Capture Concerns For (NASDAQ: NVDA), (NASDAQ: GOOGL), (NASDAQ: AMD)
Big AI sets out its terms for regulatory capture and calls it ‘Pace the frontier’