You literally cannot start something in a funnier way than this
@jsbarretto
Someone needs to sit the economists down
Task theory of value
@jonny Coincidentally, $30 T was my back-of-the-envelope number for the amount that the US stock market is overinflated by the AI bubble and the amount of value I expect to see wiped out when it bursts.
(Real economists have estimates between $15 T and $40 T, so I’m probably not too far off)
He tasks me; he heaps me; I see in him outrageous strength, with an inscrutable malice sinewing it.
I don't even need to tell jokes they are just already in the text
No dumbass the economy is clearly made of rectangles
@jonny The economy goes in the square hole!
Sure, yeah, assuming perfect substitution of AI and human labor for a task such that the only place they differ is their price is a totally fair assumption
What the fuck, they have this "Ideas" term that is there to like "make the economy go up as it does like normal without any AI term" that is a multiplier in the "value of human labor" term. but then that term is modeled as a proportion of total GDP, which goes up tautologically by introducing AI, so there's an implicit feedback that buffers unemployment?? That would theoretically be ... Increased research funding???
Oh awesome here we go, this is the parameter I was looking for - the reinstatement ratio is the proportion of new tasks that are created by automation, so at 1, every automated task creates a new labor task (which can then be automated over time). The automation share is constant that controls how many tasks are automated (assigned to AI entirely) vs "augmented," where the task is performed by some mix if labor and AI. Its so awesome how in the scenario where AI makes the economy go hogwild it just causes no problems and there is no additional labor needed at all to clean up after it.
This assumption rules:
In this case [of automation] we assume that AI raises capital’s productivity to the point where
capital, rented at the no-AI rate supplies the instance at unit cost that is, 𝑎_{i,t} log points below labor’s unit cost without AI, where bars mark the no-AI path.
So like, automation is always possible and we fix the cost of it so it is always cheaper because ai is magic and makes the capital pricing term disappear.
@jonny series of tubes
@jonny seize the means of task
@jonny everything demands the Homer Simpson internal voice
@jonny Dear god, STEM major humanities minor courses desperately need to come back